Mattingly World

Free Agent Signings, Season 11

2010-02-28T10:29:00.000-08:00

Another year of big contracts. Let's get right to it.

10. RP Jed Holmes - Anaheim Dodgers ($25M/4 years).

Big time relief player without much closing experience, but that's what Anaheim will try to do with him. He's a great player, but will he be enough to get Anaheim back to the World Series? Could be a pretty good bargain player, assuming he doesn't decline too much.

9. SP Lenny Davis - San Diego Conquistadors ($28M/4 years).

Davis has pitched for Cleveland the past four years, where he has been good but not excellent. San Diego is coming off of their 4th straight 2nd place finish, and hope Davis helps them win their first division title. Could be a good signing for San Diego.

8. RF Geraldo Valdes - Seattle Argonauts ($35.8M/4 years).

Seattle was looking for offense this year and they've spent some money to try and get it. Valles come over from Charleston where he never posted great numbers (OPS south of .800 in each of the past three seasons). Will he be able to improve in Seattle? They'll need him to if they want to compete with Toronto and Syracuse.

7. SS Erik Miller - Pittsburgh Pirates ($36M/4 years).

This was a rather quiet signing, and it looks like a good one for Pittsburgh. Miller played well for Toronto over the past four seasons. If he can keep that up in Pittsburgh, they should compete for the playoffs for seasons to come. Might be a concern that his power is already beginning to decline, though.

6. 2B Dale Kennedy - Anaheim Dodgers ($37M/5 years).

And Anaheim appears on the list again. Kennedy should fill a role for Anaheim on offense, but will these two signings (Kennedy and Holmes) be enough to fend off San Francisco and other NL powerhouses? This particular contract may not look so good at the back end.

5. RP Henry Hitchcock - Syracuse WHITETAILS ($37.5M/5 years).

Syracuse made the playoffs for the first time ever last season, finishing just a shade under .500 (80-82). They made this signing in hopes of making it back this year, but I'm not sure Hitchcock s going to help. For the most part he looks good, but he's going to have some control issues, and he struggled a bit in San Francisco last season (4.58 ERA). He's converted about 2/3 of his save changes over the course of his career. However, the price is not outrageous.

4. SP Richard Takada - Augusta Hitmen ($42.2/4 years).

After dropping out of races for the top tier offensive players this season, Augusta re-signed Takada, who had been a good pitcher for them over the past few seasons. Unfortunately, he suffered a major injury during Spring Training and will likely miss the entire season. If Augusta somehow squeaks into the playoffs, he could return. Otherwise, he will hope to contribute next season. The injury makes this look like an awful signing for the Hitmen, but hindsight is 20/20.

3. SP Oswaldo Vincente - Syracuse WHITETAILS ($44M/5 years).

Syracuse shows up on the list again, this time signing on this season's highest paid pitcher. While he will probably not win the Cy Young Award, he does look like a nice pitcher. He pitched great in limited time for Monterrey last season and Syracuse hopes that will carry over to this season. If it does, Syracuse will have the makings of a nice staff, and Toronto may have a challenge on their hands.

2. CF Kevin Bravo - Seattle Argonauts ($86.5M/5 years).

This is where Seattle is really hoping to get some run production. And for this kind of money, they better get it! I've learned from experience that dishing out this kind of money for position players can be risky business. He should be effective in the first couple years of the contract, but will Bravo be worth $17.3M/season in the final years of this deal?

1. C Edgard Saez - Monterrey Banditos ($86.8M/ 5 years).

The biggest signing this season goes to Monterrey, edging out Bravo's contract by roughly $300k. He is going to be an excellent hitter and help Monterrey score a ton of runs, but what is he going to look like in Seasons 14-16 when the contract really gets expensive? In the meantime, the Banditos will hope this is enough to get them into the playoffs.

Season 10 First-Year Player Draft Review

2009-12-29T20:05:00.001-08:00

In this post, I will review the first round selections (1-32) from this year's draft. While I believe the overall quality of this year's draft was low, most owners did well for themselves. Keep in mind that I am working with a 14M advance scouting budget, so my projections may differ from yours.

1. Jeff Earley - Kansas City FORCE
The first selection in this year's draft went to Kansas City and they went with a big bat. He's got great ratings across the board, although, if there is a weakness, it's his split against lefties, although even that is good. He's listed as a shortstop, and his projections are just below league average for the position. He could easily move to 3B as an all-star, or stay at SS. That will be a decision for ZEKE to make.
Grade: A-

2. Earl Morton - Colorado Springs Abominable Snowmen
Colorado Springs took another IF with the 2nd overall pick. While not as powerful as Earley, Morton has better splits and a great eye. He'll also be a great player down the road.
Grade: A-

3. Nicholas Hall - Little Rock Nine
Overall, he projects as a good pitcher that will pitch deep into games, however, his split versus lefties is a concern. Control, velocity, and pitches all look good, though. You just usually want a more complete pitcher for the first to come off the board.
Grade: B

4. Mo Davis - Salem Stripsearch
Another good pitcher, but again, one usually expects a better player in the top five. He projects to have great control and a very strong split against lefties, but his split against righties is just average. He won't be able to pitch as deep into games on a regular basis as you would like, either. Still, though, a fine player.
Grade: B+

5. Roy Lewis - Monterrey Banditos
This makes the third IF selected in the first five picks. He projects to have great contact and eye, which will make him an on-base machine. Power and splits, though, are just average.
Grade: B+

6. Neifi Gutierrez - Austin Sixth Streets
In my opinion, Gutierrez represents great value at #6. He's got stamina, splits, control, and a couple of great pitches. Only concerns are low velocity and he looks like more of a fly than groundball pitcher.
Grade: A

7. Edgar Borbon - Fargo Northmen
Borbon looks like a very nice hitting shortstop, although those defensive projections (range and glove) are just a hair below league averages, and you have to expect that he'll fall a little short of those. Even at 3B he'd be solid, though.
Grade: B+

8. Omar Martin - Arizona Sun Spots
As of this writing, Martin is not signed. Even if he were, he is not what you want at this part of the draft. Both splits are pretty weak, although he does have strong control, velocity and a couple nice pitches.
Grade: C+

9. Oscar Lo - Charlotte Trollups
Looks like a pretty good pitcher, but his split against lefties is not what you want. Other than that he looks pretty good. He projects to have plus velocity.
Grade: B-

10. Tony Reynoso - New York Metropolitans
A decent bat, but it's the defensive projections that make this player valuable. The question is whether he'll hit those projections, especially with the glove, which would need to improve nearly 30 points. If he does hit them, he'll be a nice all-around SS.
Grade: B+

11. Joe Plunk - Toronto Titwillows
This was a draft where it made sense to go after relief pitching in the first round, and this was the first to come off the board. He projects to 80+ in every category and should be a great closer in the future. His stamina may prevent him from pitching more than an inning in a game, though.
Grade: A

12. Johan Newfield - Pittsburgh Pirates
And the next reliever comes off the board right after Plunk. He's almost as good as Plunk, but more of a flyball pitcher and may be vulnerable to the homerun ball. His stamina is a bit better, though, and should have no problem pitching multiple innings.
Grade: A-

13. Robert Sparks - Mexico City Tormenta
The bat is alright, but his glove projections are not what you want at SS. He'd still be decent at 3B, though.
Grade: B-

14. John Boyle - Washington D.C. Senators
Boyle is the third reliever to come off the board. He also looks good across the board, although his secondary pitcher is weaker than the others. He still projects as a very nice bullpen pitcher.
Grade: A-

15. Dan Taylor - Seattle Argonauts
While he projects to have nice splits and pitches, his control is a major concern, and could be even worse if he doesn't hit the projection. Those splits might be enough to overcome the control, but then again, they might not.
Grade: C+

16. Joe Clark - Arizona Sun Spots
Clark is the second Arizona draft pick and the second one who is not signed. He projects to have average control, and a weak vL and velocity. He might get the job done in the right ballpark, as he is an extreme groundball pitcher.
Grade: C-

17. J.R. Hardy - Syracuse WHITETAILS
Hardy has pretty average splits, but projects to have great control, which is likely to make up for it. Syracuse may have a pretty decent pitcher on their hands.
Grade: B

18. Albie Liriano - Buffalo beef eaters
Great pitches, great velocity, and very good control. However, even that may not be enough to overcome his split projections, especially if they don't hit. He might have enough going for him to do it, though.
Grade: B-

19. Randy Howard - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Howard looks like he's going to be a pretty good ML player. He's got good splits with no glaring weaknesses to bring him down. If he hits his defensive projections, he should be right at league average for a 2B.
Grade: B+

20. Trevor Salazar - Augusta Hitmen
Salazar has ton of power, but his projections at batting eye and splits are cause for concern. We'll hope he can make the big leagues as a low on-base, high power player, but his deficiencies may be hard to overcome.
Grade: C-

21. Gary Hines - Cleveland Curse
Yet another IF prospect. He's pretty good across the board, and should be a decent player. Good value pick here.
Grade: B

22. Al Bennett - Trenton Generals
Average splits, as long as he hits them, but contact and eye leave something to be desired. His projections are a little short of what you want at SS.
Grade: C

23. Glen Lary - San Jose Aces
Lary is a corner outfielder with no power, poor splits, and average batting eye. His greatest strength is his ability to make contact, and that is usually not enough to save a player. He'll be looking to break into the majors at all.
Grade: D+

24. Jacob Kim - Colorado Springs Abominable Snowmen
Kim projects as a great hitter, although the only place he can really play is as a DH. As such, he doesn't have much power. He should still be a pretty decent player, at least on an American League team.
Grade: B+

25. Robin Butcher - Buffalo beef eaters
My scouts couldn't bring me back any information on this player and he isn't signed yet. If he doesn't get signed, he won't be worth much either way.
Grade: Incomplete

26. Emmanuel Alomar - San Diego Conquistadors
Another player with poor splits, poor contact, and some power, however, Alomar projects much better at batter's eye. He may actually be a decent ML player at some point, but not a star.
Grade: C-

27. Reginald Jepsen - Cheyenne Beagles
Projects as another good relief pitcher, however, his stamina is a bit low. On some nights, he may not even make it through a full inning. When he is on the mound, though, the results should be favorable.
Grade: B+

28. Peter Mahoney - Cincinnati Bearcats
Nothing really jumps out about this player, and he is a bit power-deficient. His glove doesn't project to one most managers would feel comfortable having at 2B, either.
Grade: C+

29. Donn Stewart - Tacoma Winter Stix
Could possibly platoon against left-handers at some point, but even in that role, he'd be just average. Contact and eye project to be pretty nice. Everything else is average or worse.
Grade: C-

30. Charles Morgan - Seattle Argonauts
It's hard to imagine this guy breaking into the majors. He's got decent contact and eye, but Triple-A splits. No power whatsoever, either.
Grade: C-

31. Esteban Moraga - San Francisco Seals
Good defense, but nothing else says major league other than eye. May be good for a September callup at some point, but little else.
Grade: C-

32. Stuffy Allen - Tacoma Winter Stix
Weak split against righties (the one you don't want to be weak) but everything else looks solid. Might be good for the back end of a rotation or long relief, however, he isn't signed yet.
Grade: C+

Good luck with all of your draft picks!

KANSAS CITY FORCE AT HALFWAY POINT

2009-12-10T13:22:00.000-08:00

Here's a look at my team halfway through the season. Obviously the team is developing young players while it struggles at the major league level(OBVIOUSLY!).

I'm going to start with the controversial Julio Cedeno trade. It's been said he's the "greatest player this league has ever seen." This is true! I will miss him greatly.

Here's what I got for him:
CATCHER (AAA)
Stretch Burks
Who is hitting .333 avg/.440 on base/.643 slugging (21 homers,16 doubles,62 Rbi)
I'd say a got a pretty good power hitting catcher in return.

2ND BASEMAN(AAA)
Hal Walsh
Hitting .366/.428/.529 (30 doubles, 66 runs)
Another good hitting middle infielder

RELIEF PITCHER (HIGH-A/AA)
Khoury Simpson
High-A: 31 innings, 21 hits, ZERO homers, 7 walks, 30K's.
AA: 5 innings, 5 hits, zero homers, zero walks, 7K's.
Dominating closer

STARTING PITCHER (AAA)
Jose Moreno
Season 9 AAA: 94 inn, 104 hits, 9 homers (1.32 whip, 2.87 era)
Season10 AAA: 114 inn, 136 hits, 7 homers (1.54 whip, 3.87 era)
This is the weakest link. He pitched well in '09 but has taken a step
back this season. However, the stats are off a bit due to a couple of
bad outings (I'm talking some REALLY BAD outings!)

All in all it's turned out well. Could have done better but I certainly didn't
get taken.

WHAT'S DOWN IN AA? (Note: I've moved all my developing players up a level)

THIRD BASEMAN
Gorkys Lee
20 homers, 75 Rbi in High A
Struggling in first 10 games in AA

SHORTSTOP
Freddie Clayton
High-A:.376/.465/.579 (18 doubles)
AA: 10 games, .317/.378/.512

HIGH-A LEVEL IS LOADED WITH TALENT!

FIRST BASEMAN
Brian Taylor
LOW A: .333/.411/.591 (24 doubles, 14 homers, 67 rbi, 53 runs)
HIGHA: 10 games. .278/.325/.444

OF/DH
Patrick Flaherty
LOW A: .283/.378/.565 (27 doubles, 46 rbi, 43 runs)
HIGHA: Just called up.

OF/DH
L.J. Golub
LOW A: .308/.362/.581 (14 doubles, 16 homers, 48 rbi, 45 runs)
HIGHA: 10 games struggling

THE ENTIRE LOW-A STARTING STAFF MOVED TO HIGH A

Wilson Tapani
LOW A: 96 inn, 87 hits, 3 homers, 82K
HIGHA: Dominating

Takahiro Meng
LOW A: 54 inn, 58 hits, 4 homers, 57 K's)
HIGHA: Dominating

D'Angelo Serra
LOW A: 89 inn, 85 hits, 4 homers, 79 K's
HIGHA: Dominating

Antonio Ono
LOW A: 93 innings, 90 hits, 3 homers, 70 K's
HIGHA: Struggling after 2 starts

Juan Molina
LOW A: 78 inn, 65 hits, 3 homers, 75 K's
HIGHA: Dominating

THERE IS NOBODY LEFT IN LOW-A WORTH TALKING ABOUT!

ROOKIE BALL:
#1 draft pick overall
SHORSTOP
Jeff Earley
.414/.514/.862 (2 doubles, 3 homers, 8 rbi, 10 runs)
Took a while to sign so this is only in 11 games.

SOME INTERESTING PICKUPS:
OF (Off waivers)
Scott Harding
'09: Full season .281/.350 (70 sb's, 99 runs)
'10: basically the same so far but playing less in a platoon
He's not even fully developed yet so I'm looking forward to his future.

1B/DH (Minor leauge FA signing)
Dean Gonzales
AAA: .358/.426/.702 (23 homers, 22 doubles, 60 rbi, 51 runs)

I'm VERY happy watching my players develop and hope to be competitive
in a couple of seasons.

Hartjh14's Season 10 team review

2009-11-10T17:04:00.000-08:00

These are all just for fun. I did basic comments on each player and a slightly more detailed summary of the offenses and pitchers as a whole. No offense intended…this is all just my opinion and not scientific at all.

Seattle

C - Julio Flores Good all around C, should have a better year this season
1B - Geronimo Camacho Youngster being brought up, power low for 1B
2B - Quinton Murphy Poor range, decent glove, average bat
SS - Al Calles Young talented bat – not a defensive SS
3B - Brook Shelley Good all around player
LF - Eduardo Manuel Average bat, D should be fine in LF
CF - Pablo Sanchez Good bat that should never set foot in CF
RF - Sal Pritchett Good all around bat

Defense is going to hurt this team. This team should hit ok (though Seattle will keep the numbers down). I’m going to be interested to see how bad the defense hurts the team. If it isn’t bad, I may have to look at how much I value defense.

Anthony D'Amico Up and coming star…going to be good for a long time
Harvey Michaels vR is a little low, but Seattle helps him - decent pitcher
Ryan Beamon Career is winding down...should put up ok numbers in Seattle
Andrew Hale Good control, poor vL, ok vR…below average SP, ok numbers in Seattle
Thumper Spence Ratings look ok, but poor performance the last 2 years

Ralph Roosevelt Closer in decline, but should be ok for 1 more year

Pitching in Seattle helps a lot. The pitching is ok after D’Amico, but the numbers are better than they would appear from a ratings perspective. If the defense doesn’t hurt this staff, I can see this team competing for the division title again.

Prediction: This division looks like the race to .500 – whoever gets there wins the division. This team has a good chance.

Syracuse

Toronto

Eric Miller 3B Good power for a leadoff hitter, gold glove level 3B
Ivan Blanco LF Good all around hitter, good D for LF
Benito Chavez 2B Another very good all around bat – range is low for 2B, but solid
Doug Valdes C Good bat – probably should switch places with Miller in the lineup
Orlando Molina RF Up and coming hitter…won’t be a superstar, but looks good
Damaso Torres 1B Decent bat – power is a little low for 1B
Carlos Roque CF Blow average bat, but solid CFer
Aramis Maduro SS Decent defensive SS, bat is weak but ok

Offense is ok – would be better with Valdes and Miller switching spots in the order. Top of the order should score some runs, bottom of the order is okay and helps defensively.

SP Virgil Beltran Will eat innings, should be better than last year
SP Artie Silva Control and vR isn’t great, but has a great #1 pitch. Should be ok
SP Ernest Mercedes ratings look better than production…could see some improvement
SP John Tanaka Average SP – could do well, could blow up…hard to say
SP BC Cortes Control will keep him from ever being a quality SP

CL Sidney DeJean Ratings look good, production has been up and down

Pitching isn’t very strong, but isn’t horrible either. This team could compete for the division again or it could completely fall apart. If the guys with upside produce, this team could be tough to play on the days Cortes isn’t pitching.

Prediction: Could win the division if it gets to .500, could finish last. I’m rooting for the tits, so I’ll say it’s close to .500

Fargo

C - Carson Oliver Not very good defensively, okay offensively (especially vL)
1B - Wendall Giambi Looks like a promising young hitter – upside here
2B - Edgar Vega Horrible defensively, pretty good bat. Needs to play LF
3B - Chris Burks BE is low which hurts OBP, but solid slugging 3B
SS - Neal Cromer Really, really bad at SS. Bad D negates the little offensive value
LF - Stump Brooks Decent productive LFer. Could have upside if BA improves
CF - Nipsey Wengert Subpar defense, ok offense. Won’t hurt, won’t help
RF - Darrell Sweeney Monster hitter. One of the elite bats in the league

Sweeney makes the whole offense better. Some decent power throughout the lineup, but BA and OBP have been lower than I’d expect for the past couple years. Will they be better or will it be more of the same? The answer to that question will help determine the type of season this team will have. The defense is terrible.

SP1 - Rudy Glanville League average SP at best, splits are very low
SP2 - Kiki Tatis Has gotten worse each of the last 4 years. Upside here to bounce back
SP3 - Sherman McGuire Bad, and the weak defense is going to kill him
SP4 - Santiago Escobar Best SP when healthy. Quality SP here…could win 15 - 18
SP5 - Davey Montanaz League average SP.

CL - Carson Stull ERA is high, but has done a decent job closing in Fargo

Defense really hurts this pitching staff. There are a couple guys here that could win 15+ games with good defense and average run support. I think this group is going to struggle, but it won’t be completely their fault.

Prediction: A tough year in Fargo. 70 wins would be an accomplishment, but could happen with improved defense.

Cincinnati

Trenton

Eli Limon (RF) Good leadoff hitter vR – I assume he’s platooning
Wilfredo Sojo (2B) Looks like a decent hitter that’s struggled the past 2 seasons
Ichiro Zhang (CF) Very good bat…only an idiot would trade him
Nick Ludwick (1B) Good run producer…still has at least 1 very good year in him
Denny Park (C) Good platoon C – PC is low
Benji Bautista (LF) Good all around hitter on a slow decline
Carlos Rodriguez (3B) Could be good, could be a bust…on a short leash I imagine
Bey Black (SS) Defensive SS that won’t kill the team with the bat

Offense is pretty good. I think this team will score some runs. Defense is about average. The addition of Zhang takes this offense to a new level.

Joel Daniels (LHP) Consistent quality SP – not elite, but very good
Bucky Kaufman (RHP) Control is a little low, but he has produced at the ML level before
Felipe Moya (RHP) Another low control SP – will be up and down
Max Duncan (LHP) Decent SP coming off a rough season…expect more
Evan Paronto (LHP) Rookie is still developing, but looks solid – upside here

Pitching is a nice mixture of quality pitchers, a couple guys that will be up and down, and a rookie with some upside. If two of Duncan, Kaufman, Moya, and Paronto come through, this team will be in very good shape. If not, there could be a lot of slugfests.

Prediction: Competes for a playoff spot – either division or WC.

Augusta

1 LF Pete Benes Decent leadoff hitter…gets on base and has some upside
2 CF Kevin Aldred Had a rough year last season. Should be better this season
3 1B Cap Glass Power is starting to decline, but BA and OBP will keep him good
4 RF Lyle Lindsey Rough season in Augusta…better days ahead
5 3B Mark Baines 21 y.o. future impact bat…maybe not yet though
6 C Branden Hansell Solid all around catcher. Good player
7 SS Skeeter Wilkinson Horrible defensive SS. Bat isn’t good enough to justify playing
8 2B Midre Cela Should be playing SS (though he’s not good either).

Defense is brutal. Offense should score some runs and they are going to have to given the defensive weakness. Top of the order looks good and the rest looks decent. If Baines comes through, this will be a very good offense.

SP1 Billy Ray Sewell Starting to age, but still a #1 guy.
SP2 Richard Takada A quality #2 guy. Should be solid.
SP3 David Matos Another very good SP…could be #1 or 2 on a lot of teams.
SP4 Troy Stargell Average SP – lack of quality pitches hurts him
SP5 Angel Kelly Hasn’t done well in the upper minors…what will he do at the ML level?

CL D'Angelo Rivera Outperformed his ratings last year…can he repeat?

Pitching is very good. A couple key defensive upgrades could make this one of the best pitching staffs in the NL.

Predication: 3rd competitive team in the division. One of them (at least) is going to miss out on the playoffs. Wouldn’t want to face this pitching in the playoffs if they make it.

Kansas City

LF Scott Harding Outperformed his rating last season…can he repeat?
2b Joel Price Decent bat vR, but horrible 2B D.
RF Louie Guerrero Very good bat – could play for any team in the league
1B Ray Lee Curious to see how he’s effected by the new power limits – decent bat
3B Vin Slusarski Poor BE, but good splits play well in KC
CF Al Valdes Good for D, little else
C Quentin Grace Good for D, little else
SS Alberto Cordero Good for D, nothing else

Well, the defense should be good, but the hitting is going to be bad with 4 easy outs including the pitcher. This team will struggle to score runs.

Walter Dean Poor vL limits production, but he’s an average pitcher in production
Jim Burke Looks like a quality SP on paper…should be solid
Sammy Francona Poor splits, no great pitches…not good
Kurt Laxton Poor control, no great pitches…not good
Andre Brumfield ERA under 5 would be a great season

Pitching staff is bad. I’m as big of a believer in defense as there is, but I don’t think that good defense can overcome this staff’s weaknesses. It’s going to be a long year for this team. There’s no chance that this team wins 60.

Prediction: It better be the worst team in the league.

St Louis

EVAN YOUNG very good leadoff hitter – great OBP
ROBINSON PETERS Good eye, poor vR split – I wouldn’t bat him 2nd
KEVIN BRAVO Declining power, but still a solid #3 for a year or 2
RICHARD YOSHII A bit of an underachiever…solid hitter might have a great year left
LOUIE ZHOU Decent all around hitter – past his prime
JEROME MENECHINO Decent all around hitter
RAY RAMIREZ yet another decent all around guy
SOLLY INCAVIGLIA range is low, but good SS otherwise. Decent bat

Offense is good. No real weak spots, but not very many elite bats either. Should score enough runs to be a top 5 offense in the NL.

BRIAN MEDINA Still a top 5 SP – getting older, but still a stud
AL GONGORIA Good SP, not great. Will be solid.
BYRON BRANDT Great control, has consistently out performed his ratings. Great #3
MEL CURTIS Solid #4, nothing special, won’t hurt the team
BOBBY BECKWORTH Rookie may be a year away from being pretty good.

TODD CUMMINGS Consistently very good closer

Medina is great, 3 other SP are good. Beckworth is the wild card. Offense isn’t special, pitching is good to very good. Should be good enough to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Favorite to win the division and a playoff shoo-in barring injury. If another SP steps up, this team can compete for a spot in the WS.

Tampa Bay

C - Al Perez Very good all around C, low durability hurts
1B - Phil Webb Outstanding run producer for another year or 2
2B - Dion King Decent bat now…could probably use another season in the minors
3B - Bert Lary Decent bat, solid defense
SS - James Roth Good bat, not a defensive SS
LF - Woody Bailey Power bat at the peak of his career
CF - Victor Santana Ratings look good, but production has been spotty
RF - Bo Finley Veteran hitter clearly in decline…does he have one year left?

Don’t know the lineup order, but there are a few very productive bats here. Defense is going to be sub par, which will hurt the pitchers. Offense should put some runs on the board, and they’ll have to because of this:

Lyle Giles Bad control pretty much negates positive points
Pablo Ortega Splits indicate a pitcher not ready for the majors, but he’ll get his shot
Nick Tracy Bad vR = bad pitcher. Below average pitcher
Jobert Infante A quality ML pitcher! Should be #1 by a long shot.
Cam Dunston Weak splits…another bad pitcher.

Francis Kent Very good closer…did well in his first year in the role

Lets face it: the pitching is terrible on paper. If this team wins 70 games with this pitching, it will be quite the accomplishment – having said that, they won 79 last year. TB’s management must be doing something right!

Prediction:

Austin

Monterrey

Roger Cooper CF Quality defense, weaker bat
Felipe Morales RF good all around hitter
Elmer Maloney 1B Decent hitter, defense is weak for a 1B, but that’s ok
Wayne Prior LF Solid all around hitter
Doug Yeats 3B Weak BE tends to lead to inconsistency...will this be a good or bad year?
Scott Jones 2B No power, but should be ok vR
Bing Strickland C Very good defensive C…should help pitchers
Lew Petkovsek SS Very good defensive SS – bat is weak, but good enough given D

No studs, but several good all around hitters. Defense should be pretty good with quality defenders up the middle. This team won’t score a lot of runs, but the defense should help the pitchers produce better stats than they normally would.

Steve Worrell Decent pitcher that should benefit from the defense
Sean Hutch Another decent pitcher that will benefit from the defense.
Clay Weaver Has been very bad at the ML level…may be better, but not great
Leonardo Butler My pick to have a good year given the defense behind him…sleeper
Erik Acosta Did better last year than I’d expect…don’t think repeat

Closer
Antonio Lin Looks like a decent closer.

Bullpen looks like a real strength of the team. Rotation is a little shaky, but if Worrell and Hutch are solid and Butler steps up, this team could compete for a WC spot. I think .500 is a very realistic goal for this team with potential to exceed that.

Prediction: .500 record and a big improvement from last season.

Los Angeles Angels

Cookie Gonzalez (S) Great leadoff hitter
Darryl Dixon (S) Low OBP for #2 hitter, ok defense
Angel Sanchez (L) Rapidly declining power - maybe 1 more year as a #3 hitter.
Tomas Tavarez (R) Probably should be hitting #3, better vL, still impressive vR
Tony Trevino (S) Should be hitting clean-up – weak contact will make him inconsistent
Dan Davis (S) Type of hitter likely hurt by the new power capping – poor splits
Alex Samuel (S) Defensive player with average bat at best
Gus Borders (S) another weak spot in the lineup – poor splits + decent power = mediocre

Offense will rely heavily on the 1, 3, 4, and 5 hitters. Little production elsewhere. An injury to one of those guys will not keep the team from making the playoffs, but it will keep them from winning once there.

Raul Cedeno (L) Top 5 – top 10 pitcher in the league - will not go undefeated again
Blake Jones (R) Best pitcher in the league - enough said
Trenidad Santiago (L) Inning eater - will save bullpen with a lot of good innings.
Armando Torres (L) Won’t kill the team
Sammy Mercado (L) Rookie will likely be inconsistent

Nerio Brow (R) Weak spot is the bullpen – average closer at best

Hard to find a lot of major issues with the team. A lot of questions one you get past Jones and Cedeno I guess. Bullpen is below average. Ballpark will protect this team a little bit, but they will be very beatable in an offensive park where they won’t have the firepower to make up for their lack of offensive or pitching depth. Cedeno will not have as good of a season as he did last year.

Will win the division if: If the team stays healthy and Davis isn’t hurt by the new power adjustment.

Will miss the playoffs if: Jones or Cedeno goes down for a long time. The rest of the team could die and this team would still make the playoffs.

Prediction: First place with a similar win total to last season. Preseason favorite for a WS berth.

San Francisco

Al Javier Not a great SS, OBP is a little low for a leadoff hitter
Brandon Franco Top notch 3Bman both offensively and defensively
Julio Cedeno All-World offensive catcher. Stud #3 hitter
Allan Holden Good bat – very productive for SF
Roosevelt Henderson Another quality productive bat
Juan Nieves didn’t have a good season last year…some upside here
Cristian Kingsale Good bat, defense is suspect
Scott Nielsen Decent bat, defense is below average.

Offense looks very good – a lot of power and good all around hitters. This team should score some runs…even in San Francisco. Defense isn’t very good, but that may not be as big of an issue in San Fran as it might be in other parks.

Derek Mattingly Quality SP, not your typical #1 guy
Johnny Leary Another average SP…nothing great, certainly not bad
Al Tucker Once great SP clearly in decline. Still can hang with the big boys
Sean Gentry Promising young SP – could be #1 by the end of the year if not sooner
Keith Rose Good ratings coming off a rough season…should be better.

Keith Drew Good young closer should keep getting better

Some guys with upside here…if they develop the way it looks like they might, this team could give LAA a run for the division title. The rotation can be a top 3 staff, especially considering the home park.

Prediction: Anything less than a playoff berth would be a shock and a huge disappointment.

Salt Lake City

Salem

Free Agent Signings, Season 10

2009-11-08T05:59:00.000-08:00

Another big year for FA pickups, although probably not as big as last. It actually cost more to break into the top 10, but the contracts at the top were not as high (only one max contract this time around, compared to three last time). Enough of that - let's get to the list!

10. 3B Brandon Franco ($31.5M/3 years) - San Francisco Seals
Franco stays within the same division, but moves from hopeful World Champions to actual World Champions. The Seals will hope that his .530 slugging over the past two years will carry over, and help them to a repeat. The best part about this contract is that it's only for three years - he isn't likely to decline too much by the end of it.

9. RP Fausto James ($33.5M/5 years) - New York Metropolitans
James is another player leaving Anaheim. He should be an important piece of the bullpen, although the price may be a little steep. Looks like he'll be moving into the closer's role for New York, which will represent new territory for him. Biggest issue seems to be his stamina. Not a bad pickup at all, though.

8. SP Enrique Tavarez ($34.6M/5 years) - Charleston Hurricanes
Tavarez comes over from Buffalo, and he just looks like a solid pitcher all the way around. He's kept his ERA under 4.00 since Season 7, and if that can continue. Charleston will compete for a playoff spot once again.

7. C J.C. Matthews ($35.1M/4 years) - Cleveland Curse
The Curse needed to do something to stay afloat in the ultra-competitive AL North and for them it meant paying big bucks to bring back one of their own players. And he's a great one! With at least 30 home runs in each of the past four seasons, Matthews will do everything he can to get Cleveland back to the post-season.

6. SP Chad Peters ($36.5M/5 years) - Chicago White Sox
The already stacked White Sox add more pitching depth in Peters. He comes over from Charleston (and posting very solid numbers for them) and will look to push Chicago to a World Series win. They were the odds-on-favorite to win it last season before being dumped from their first post-season series by the Winter Stix. This could be the year, though. It happened for the Yankees - maybe these White Sox are next!

5. 1B Howie Ross ($44.6/5 years) - Pittsburgh Pirates
Ross comes over from the White Sox and is going to look to insert a ton of power into the middle of that lineup. He belted 66 home runs for the Sox last year... 66! Pittsburgh would love to see that kind of production, and it could push them from worst to first if they can get it.

4. RF Sammy Lugo ($50M/5 years) - Minnesota Minutemen
Like Cleveland, Minnesota had to pay to bring their own guy back. Unlike Matthews, however, Lugo is going to see a pretty nice raise (at least in Seasons 11-13). And why not? He's been over 50 home runs in each of the past three seasons. These are the kinds of moves that you need to make to stay competitive in that division.

3. SP William Schneider ($64M/5 years) - Syracuse Whitetails
Boy, are we glad to see this guy leave the NL East! He moves from Cincinnati to Syracuse, where the division is wide open (only took 78 wins to take it last season). Syracuse finished tied for that last season, maybe Schneider can help them get over the hump?

2. LF Louie Zhou ($65M/5 years) - St. Louis Gateway City Slickers
Zhou moves over from the World Champions to St. Louis. He carries with him an impressive bat and is going to join an already talented squad. Will he be enough to push St. Louis over the top and get them back to the World Series? St. Louis will hope his numbers resemble what he was putting up at Florida rather than San Francisco, though, where both his SLG and OBP dropped substantially.

1. SP Blake Jones ($110M/5 years) - Anaheim Dodgers
For all of the players that they lost, they sure did gain a great one. Jones comes over from Tacoma, where he lead the Winter Stix all the way to the World Series. The Dodgers will hope for more of the same. Even with Jones, can they overcome San Francisco and St. Louis?

Free Agent Signings, Season 9

2009-08-01T07:48:00.000-07:00

This was a big year for free agent signings - probably the biggest I've ever seen. All sorts of big names changed addresses, so let's get right to it.

10. SP Troy Stargell (25.3 M/4 years) - Augusta Hitmen
In most seasons, this kind of contract is good enough for at least 5th. This season, however, it barely makes the list. Stargell brings his career 4.07 ERA to Noes Field and its pitcher-friendly dimensions, where he hopes to be even better. He should improve the Hitmen's rotation.

9. SP Edwin Patterson (27.0 M/3 years) - Tacoma Winter Stix
The former max contract staff ace lands at the most extreme of pitcher's parks. He'll join Alex Phelps and Blake Jones in a stellar rotation that hopes to contend for an AL North Title, or at least a wildcard spot. As for Patterson, you have to wonder what he's going to look like in a couple seasons at age 40, drawing $9 Million, but the Winter Stix sure are set up to win now.

8. SS Benito Chavez ($35.2 M/4 years) - Toronto Titwillows
Toronto replaces one great SS, Erik Miller (who at the time of this writing is still available), and sign another in Chavez. This is Chavez' second tour of duty with the Titwillows, and they hope he'll bring the big bat he had once before, and get them back into contention in the NL North.

7. SP Juan Santayana ($39 M/5 years) - Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have made it very well known that they are looking to re-tool their pitching staff, and they've tried to do just that. Santayana is coming off of two strong seasons of Tacoma, but how much of that success can be attributed to the generous park effects in Tacoma? Pittsburgh will hope very little.

6. SP Jerrod Dougherty ($46 M/5 years) - Pittsburgh Pirates
This guy is the real deal. With two straight sub-3.00 ERA campaigns and an All-Star appearance under his belt, Dougherty will look to anchor the Pirates' rotation and turn them into a playoff contender. If Santayana and others hold up their end of the bargain, he can do it.

5. SS Benito Estrella ($76 M/5 years) - Tacoma Winter Stix
You didn't think the Winter Stix were finished, did you? Along with all of that pitching, they add an excellent hitting SS. He should get on base a ton, and hopefully produce the runs to help the Winter Stix win more often than not.

4. RF Lyle Lindsey (85.0 M/5 years) - August Hitmen
It's a rare season where a contract like this one isn't the largest, but there are still three to go! The Hitmen have been searching for a huge bat for the middle of their lineup, and they've finally found it. Lindsey is coming off of seven straight seasons with at least 40 HRs and 120 RBIs, and the Hitmen will hope that he will help pull them out of the cellar of both the NL East and the runs-scored category. You have to think that St. Louis was hoping for better than a third round pick from his compensation, though.

3. SP Art Whitehill ($100 M/5 years) - Chicago White Sox
Whitehill receives the first of three max contracts this season. The White Sox have won over 110 games in each of the last three seasons, but they have yet to even make it to the world series. To do this, they knew that they needed to retain Whitehill, and that's just what they did. He's won at least 20 games in four straight seasons, he's a seven-time all-star, and a former Cy Young winner. Can't ask for much more than that.

2. SP Warren Williams ($110 M/5 years) - Cheyenne Beagles
Another big name stays put, but it cost the franchise an awful lot to get him to do so. At only 29 years of age, the two-time Cy Young award winner should still be effective at the end of this contract, and maybe the Beagles will have a couple more World Series Championships to show for it.

1. SP Pasqual Romero ($110 M/5 years) - Chicago White Sox
In what they hope is the final piece of the puzzle, the White Sox add a big time starting pitcher and hope it's enough to get them to a championship. You have to wonder, though, what will this franchise look like a few seasons from now, with $40 Million tied up in two players, and Richard Christensen coming up for arbitration before long?

Top Free Agent Signings Season 8

2009-04-24T22:15:00.000-07:00

Here are the ten most lucrative free agent contracts from Season 8! Feel free to comment, discuss, or whatever else!

10. 3B Skeeter Wilkinson ($17.7 M/3 years) - Augusta Hitmen
The Hitmen will attempt to address their offensive woes by bringing Wilkinson into the fold. Last season, he put up respectable numbers in Tacoma's extreme pitchers' park (.303/.362/.491) and Augusta hopes that he will improve on those this season. If he can, this may turn out to be a bit of a bargain.

9. SP Jay Myers ($18.9 M/3 years) - Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh is under new ownership and they go to the well early, addressing a need at starting pitcher. The three-time former all-star posted a 3.50ish ERA last season for Florida, and Pittsburgh will hope for more of the same. A good start in terms of addressing that pitching staff.

8. 3B Brooks Gruber ($21 M/5 years) - Boston Ball Busters
This is a lot of money to dish out to a player who has never appeared in the Majors. While his numbers last year in Triple-A were respectable (.820 OPS), it is hard to say whether he'll be able to translate that to the major league level. Boston hopes he works out, because they will be paying him for a long time.

7. SP Geraldo Delgado ($22 M/4 years) - San Francisco Seals
Delgado has been spectacular over his career (sub-3.00 career ERA with 130 wins), but he appears to be on the decline. At this stage, he is still one of the top pitchers in the game, but how will he look by the end of this contract? He will help San Francisco this year, but based on declining stamina, his days as a starter may be numbered.

6. SP Davey Montanez ($23.2 M/4 years) - Fargo Norsemen
Overall a pretty good signing for the Norsemen, although his lack of a strong 2nd pitch is of some concern. Still, he should bolster that rotation and make Fargo more competitive.

5. RP Julio Rivas ($23.3 M/4 years) - Charleston Hurricanes
It is not clear what role Charleston will use him in, but whatever they decide on, you can bet that he'll be successful at it. He has the stamina for long relief, but he's also got 161 career saves at the Major League Level. A solid signing for the Hurricanes.

4. RF Alex Jang ($30 M/5 years) - Tacoma Winter Stix
Last season Tacoma made huge improvements, nearly securing a wild card berth. This season they'll look to not only reach the playoffs, but contend for a division title, and Jang is looking to help them do it. He's untested in the major leagues, but looks like he has the tools to succeed. He's a bit misplaced in RF, though - perhaps a better fit in the opposite outfield position.

3. SP Ryan Palmer ($32.5 M/5 years) - San Antonio Rough Riders
Palmer is on the receiving end of a huge contract, and may not have the skills to back it up. His lack of control is a major problem as is his career 6.25 ERA - and that was at Tacoma's pitchers' paradise. San Antonio will hope he clicks and in a hurry.

2. 3B Brook Shelley ($33 M/4 years) - Seattle Argonauts
In a year where several 3Bs cashed in, Shelley does the best of all. And rightfully so. He's a great all around hitter, and a good enough defender to get the job done. He strikes out a lot, but Seattle won't care as long as he keeps hitting those bombs.

1. C Angel Sanchez ($70 M/5 years) - Anaheim Dodgers of Los Angeles/Sarasota
Sanchez receives a contract twice as big as the next highest deal. This is the kind of money that a franchise catcher can demand. His defense is good, but its his offense that earned him this contract. He'll start the season at just a shade under 300 home runs, and hit many, many more in his career with the Dodgers. They hope he will be the piece that takes them back to the World Series.

Rule 5 Draft Review

2009-01-31T22:06:00.000-08:00

Just a little review of the Rule 5 Draft!

1. RP Brian Graham - Austin Sixth Streets
Graham looks like a pretty solid player, for a Rule 5 pick. He's got good control, a ton of velocity, one good pitch and another decent pitch. He's got the stamina for long relief, but probably not starting.

2. SS Aramis Maduro - Augusta Hitmen
Aramis was selected by the Hitmen and immediately moved to 2B. He's got a pretty good bat for that position, although he probably has the arm for SS or 3B. He's only 23 years old and figures to be a part of the Augusta infield for years to come.

3. C Roland Miller - Fargo Northmen
Miller's got a strong and accurate arm behind the plate, but he won't be much of an offensive catcher. If Fargo was looking for defense behind the plate, however, they may have found it while still getting some production from the bat.

4. 2B Bobby Ray Curtis - Rochester Grave Robbers
Curtis is almost an exact copy of Maduro, except he hits lefties better, and his arm is a little weaker, which means that he'll most likely stay at 2B. This is a strong pick for Rochester.

5. RP Alexander Barker - Minnesota Mdewakantonwan
He's got very good control, but not the splits you want from a ML pitcher. His stamina is high for a RP, but probably not high enough to log a lot of innings as a starter. Probably better suited for Triple-A.

6. RP Lenny Strittmatter - Oklahoma City Wranglers
This hard-throwing right-hander is going to struggle against left-handed batters at the major league level. He may not be overly effective against righties, either. Maybe his velocity will help make him a passable ML player.

7. SP Paul Hall - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay tried to offer Hall back to Fargo, but Fargo declined. Tampa responded by assigning him to their Triple-A squad. Makes sense - he probably doesn't have the splits to succeed in the majors.

8. SS Pedro Rios - Seattle Argonauts
Although taken as a SS, he probably doesn't have the defense to play there - projects better at 3B. His bat, however, is not what you generally want at 3B.

9. SS Louie Polanco - Cleveland Curse
If he meets his projections, he'll be able to play anywhere on the diamond, and prove to be one of the better selections in this season's Rule 5 Draft. Right now he can play a better-than-average 3B, but he'd be much more valuable at SS or CF.

10. SP Roscoe Osting - Florida Flounders
Despite very good control and two very good pitches, he's likely to struggle mightily against right-handers. He also lacks the stamina to be a real effective starter. Fortunately for Florida, an offer back was declined, so they were able to stash him in Triple-A.

11. 2B Pat Lee - Burlington Carltons
He's likely to struggle if Burlington tries to play him at 2B. He projects much better at LF, but as a LF his offensive capabilities make him only average.

12. RP Julian Rivera - Arizona Sun Spots
Despite looking like a solid RP, the Sun Spots tried to send him back, but to no avail. Seems he's been DFA'd, and doesn't have much of a future with the Arizona franchise.

13. SS Willie Pujols - Cincinnati Bearcats
Pujols is another player who will have some value if he meets his projections. If that happens, he may become a ML player as a defensive replacement. If not, he won't have much use with such weak splits.

14. SP Yorrick Foster - Pittsburgh Pats
Here is another player who has solid control, but probably not the overall ability to succeed in the majors. Those mid-30s splits will make things hard on him.

15. RP Jose Beltre - Charleston Hurricanes
Beltre looks to be one of the better picks in this year's Rule 5, especially at the end of the first round. He's got fair enough splits, good control, and a good pitch, which should allow him to succeed as a set up man/and or long reliever.

16. C David Skinner - San Francisco Seals
David Skinner has the makings of a pretty good ML catcher. He doesn't have the offense to blow you away, but he does have a pretty solid bat for a catcher, and his defense behind the plate isn't going to hurt, either.

17. RP Orlando Cortez - Cheyenne Beagles
The drawback on this player is that he doesn't have great control, but his splits, velocity, and stuff may just be enough for him to succeed.

18. RP Bob Norman - Austin Sixth Streets
Austin goes to the well once again in the Rule 5, and does alright for itself again. Norman seems to have the tools to become a solid all-around relief pitcher, and solid is about as much as you can ask for in the second round of the Rule 5.

19. SP Kiki Johnson - Fargo Northmen
Here is another player who just isn't going to have the control to succeed in the bigs. His splits and velocity will help, but in the end, it may not be enough.

20. 2B Malcolm Garland - Rochester Grave Robbers
Malcolm is another player who would be passable at SS, CF, or maybe even 2B, but he really doesn't have the defensive capabilities to play those positions. He could play 3B, but if he did, his bat would be below average for that position. He may be useful coming off the bench, however.

21. SP Raul Ayala - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Ayala lacks both control and splits. Tampa Bay tried to offer him back, but the move was declined, which allowed them to send him down to Triple-A.

22. RP Delino Guerrero - Seattle Argonauts
Guerrero lacks the control to be an effective ML closer. Seattle offered him back to his original franchise, but they wouldn't take him, so Seattle sent him all the way down to High-A.

23. 3B Roberto Batista - Toronto Titwillows
Batista's defense projects him more as a corner outfielder than at 3B. Even there, his bat is only good enough for a left-handed platoon. He recently cleared waivers and was sent down to Triple-A, after an offer-back attempt failed.

24. SP Domingo Saenz - Burlington Carltons
He really just doesn't have the ability to play in the majors. He has the stamina to eat up some innings, but he's not likely to get many hitters out.

25. 2B Brandon Butler - Arizona Sun Spots
Looks like another player who just doesn't have the defense (or offense) to be an effective 2B. It should be noted, however, that he is off to a fine start this year (1.023 OPS with only one error).

26. SP Ozzie Barkley - Pittsburgh Pats
Barkley looks better suited for the minor leagues. He's got weak splits, not a lot of stuff, but he does have a ton of velocity. It isn't helping him so far this season, however.

27. RP Bobby Franco - Seattle Argonauts
Even if he reaches his projections, which may or may not be likely, Franco will lack the control to close out games at the major league level. Seattle apparently figured this out, as they offered him back. Florida promptly accepted and placed him in Double-A.

28. SS Kevin King - Burlington Carltons
King projects better at 3B, but like so many others discussed earlier, doesn't have the offense to play there. You'd never know it from the way he's playing early on this season, though (.375 OBP, with 0 errors at SS).

29. CF Randy Perez - Pittsburgh Pats
While he doesn't seem to have the defense to play CF, Pittsburgh has the right idea by using him as a utility-player early this season. He's probably good enough against lefties to work in a platoon, too. Not bad for a third round Rule 5 pick.

30. RP Joe Munro - Burlington Carltons
The final player in this year's Rule 5 draft is going to need to rely on velocity and stuff more than anything else, because that's really all he's got. After two appearances this season: so far, so good.

Top Free Agent Signings

2009-01-31T20:17:00.000-08:00

Here is a list of the ten most lucrative contracts signed during the free agent period. I have only included players who are moving to a new team - those who are returning to their old team were not included. The values listed include the total money over the entire life of the contract.

10. LF J.D. Jackson ($15 M/3 years) - Honalulu Dancing Halo's
With J.D. Jackson, the Dancing Halo's have signed a player who hits for decent average, but draws a ton of walks and scores a lot of runs. His outfield arm is a bit of a concern, even at LF, and he will be 38 by final year of the contract, so there is a chance that he will show some decline. Overall, a solid signing as long as he doesn't decline too much.

9. SS Endy Flair ($16.8 M/4 years) - Augusta Hitmen
Endy (no relation to pro wrestler Ric) Flair was signed to fill in at SS for the Hitmen. Offensively, nothing stands out about him. Last season, he posted a .320ish on-base percentage for Cleveland. That will be good enough for Augusta as long as he fields a solid SS. The Hitmen hope that he can cut down on the 21 errors from last season.

8. 1B Elmer Maloney ($17 M/5 years) - Oklahoma City Wranglers
While a solid offensive player, Maloney looks like a below-average 1B defensively. He hasn't logged more than 360 ABs at the ML level, and that was in Season 4 with Cincinnati, when he posted an on-base below .320 and drove in fewer than 50 runs. OKC will hope for much better than that this season and beyond.

7. SP Cam Montgomery ($17.7 M/4 years) - Fargo Northmen
This is a big contract for a pitcher who may not have the control to succeed in the big leagues. In season 5, he put up 11 wins with a 3.07 ERA, however last season in Triple-A, his ERA ballooned to over 6. Fargo will hope he performs more like than the guy from Season 5.

6. SP Nigel Woodward ($22.4 M/4 years) - Florida Flounders
Woodward is a pitcher who has great control and performs better against lefties than righties. Throughout his career, he has been solid, but last season he had a career high ERA (5.23) and a career low IP (96.1). Florida hopes he can bounce back, and if he does, this will prove to be a fine signing.

5. C John Hernandez ($23.4 M/3 years) - Rochester Grave Robbers
With Henderson, the Grave Robbers have a great offensive catcher with a good arm behind the plate. Last season he posted a .386 on-base percentage and drove in over 80 runs. At only 28 years of age, it's unlikely that he'll decline much, if it all, during this three-year contract. Looks like a great pick up for Rochester.

4. SP Carlos Maranon ($23.6 M/3 years) - Oklahoma City Wranglers
Maranon has great control, good splits, a good selection of pitches. The only drawback may be that he lacks the stamina to go deep into games. Also, at 35 years of age, one must wonder if he can perform at a strong level through this contract. In Season 2, he won nearly 20 games. The Wranglers will hope for a similar performance this season.

3. SP Glenn Kieschnick ($26 M/4 years) - Minnesota Mdewakantonwan
Kieschnick was one of the better pitchers on the market this off-season, and Minnesota was able to reel him in. To do so, they had to dish out a 4-year contract, which could be troublesome by the end, since he is 33 years old this year. Not withstanding, he looks primed for a solid season. Curiously, however, he has yet to make a start in Season 7.

2. 1B Gregory McNeil ($27 M/4 years) - Minnesota Mdewakantonwan
McNeil was awarded the largest contract to a position player, and why not? Last season he hit over 50 home runs and belted in over 130 RBIs for Chicago. Minnesota can only hope for similar production this season. He is under contract for four seasons - by then he may be one of the all-time leaders in HRs in Mattingly!

1. SP Billy Ray Sewell ($52 M/4 years) - Augusta Hitmen
In an attempt to shore up their pitching staff, Augusta deals out a contract that dwarfs any other signed this season. While some see Sewell as an injury concern, Augusta will look to him to anchor their rotation. He's won 18 or more games three times and hasn't had an ERA above 3.51 since Season 2 and Augusta will hope that he can maintain that level of performance, and his health.

ZEKE HIRES NEW MANAGER!

2009-01-15T17:10:00.000-08:00

The manager of the Kansas City Force has been named...."Walter".

PRESS CONFERENCE:

An old sour looking man approaches the podium. There is applause.

Walter: "Oh, shut the hell up!"

Reporter: "What's wrong? Aren't you glad to be in Kansas City?"

Walter: "Oh sure, until a tornado hits my house while I'm on the toilet."

Rep: "We've all been looking for some kind of information on you but there isn't anything."

Walt: "Good, you should mind your own damned business."

Rep: "You don't seem to have a last name."

Walt: "The IRS is looking for me."

Rep: "Why would the owner of the club hire you. You have no previous baseball experience!"

Walt: "Oh yes I do....I'm made of wood."

Rep: "Who's the guy holding you up to the podium?"

Walt: "Oh, he's just my associate. Let's just call him Jeff."

Rep: "What does Jeff do?"

Walt: "He holds me up to the podium! Dumbass."

Rep: "Do you have a wife?"

Walt: "Yes" (frown)

Rep: "Is she having a good time in the big city?"

Walt: "She always has a good time.....dammit."

Rep: "Was that her on the phone just before this press conference?"

Walt: "Yea, we got into an arguement and I hung up on her."

Rep: "What did she do?"

Walt: "She called me back and asked me if I hung up on her."

Rep: "What did you say?"

Walt: "I said to her I don't know, did it sound something like this....click."

Laughter from the crowd

Walt: "Oh, quiet down. Dumbasses."

Rep: "What are your plans for the team?"

Walt: "This team sucks. I'm going to try and make it suck less."

Rep: "Do you think more fans will come out to watch?"

Walt: "They spend money on high ticket prices, toll costs, parking, food and souveniers to watch a bunch of grown men play a child's game? They're a bunch of dumbasses is what they are!"

Reporter stands up and begins to leave the room

Walt: "Hey you, where the hell do you think you're going?"

Rep: "I've to to go to the bathroom."

Walt: "Just hold it. I do. Actually, I have too!"

Rep: "I'm leaving."

Walt: "Ok, we'll just wait."

Walter sits quietly and....waits.

Walt: "Hey Jeff, do you think he can hear us in there?"

Jeff: "Probably"

Walt: "Hey dumbass! Is it difficult to go when we're all waiting for you?"

Reporter finally comes back.

Walt: "Did you hear me when you were in there?"

Rep: "No."

Walt: "Well, we could hear you....and you didn't wash your hands!"

Reporter looks embarrased.

Walt: "Dumbass."

All World Teams (Position Players)

2009-01-10T12:55:00.000-08:00

I thought it might be interesting to compile some all world teams using players from Mattingly in the spirit of the upcoming World Baseball Classic. I put about about 30 players on each country's roster because that seems to be the average using rosters from the last WBC. So, here are my picks for the position players. I will post the pitchers when i am finished:

USA:
Position Players
1B Howie Ross, LA
2B Davey Tejera, CHC
SS Domingo Nunez, CHR
3B Brandon Franco, LA
C Rey Fitzgerald, LA
RF Graeme Hernandez, CHC
CF Kevin Bravo, BUR
LF Chance Goldberg, AUS
DH Mack Hermanson, CHC
bench Gregory McNeil, CHC
bench Jumbo Torres, CHY
bench Erik Miller, TOR
bench Woodie Bailey, TB
bench Don Garcia, AUS
bench Edgard Saez, SCO

Pitching Staff
Blake Jones, SF
Warren Williams, CHY
Geraldo Delgado, CHR
Edwin Patterson, CHC
Art Whitehill, CHC
Gregg Rogers, SF
Nerio Brow, LA
Al Tucker, SF
Marino Terrero, CLE
Johnny Leary, SF
William Schneider, CIN
Dustan Perry, CHC
Tim Thomas, CHY
Todd Cummings, STL
Bryan McMasters, CHY

Dominican:
Position Players
1B Tomas Tavarez, LA
2B Felipe Redondo, LR
SS Benito Estrella, CHY
3B Mariano Martin, MN
C Julio Cedeno, KC
RF Cookie Gonzalez, LA
CF Victor Santana, TB
LF Vladimir Gonzalez, STL
DH Diego Park, CIN
bench Julio Hernandez, SCO
bench Max Cortazar, FL
bench Jesus Mota, CHR
bench Ricardo Delgado, SCO
bench Carlos Canseco, CHC
bench Benji Bautista, TRE

Pitching Staff
Al Gongora, STL
Raul Cedeno, LA
Vicente Estrella, ARI
Alex Padilla, CHC
Julio Martinez, ARI
Enrique Galvez, KC
Virgil Salinas, CIN
Carlos Maranon, CHY
Virgil Beltran, TOR
Santiago Escobar, BUR
Edgar Hernandez, TOR
Harry Sierra, STL
Diego Ramirez, MN
Alberto Cordero, CHA
Willie Telemaco, ARI

Japan:
Position Players
1B Onan Irabu, SCO
2B Byung-Hyun Kim, TAC
SS Pat Suh, CHY
3B Joseph Sugawara, TRE
C Richard Yoshii, STL
RF Donald Nomo, CHC
CF Ramon Cho, LA
LF Louie Zhou, FL
DH Denny Park, TRE
bench Hideo Mori, DUR
bench Pat Lee, SF
bench Phil Dong, ROC
bench Brian Brea, TAC
bench Don Zhang, AUS
bench Pat Cheng, SD

Venezuala:
Position Players
1B Felipe Sardinha, CLE
2B Alejandro Mendoza, SD
SS Angel Serra, SEA
3B Benito Chavez, TOR
C Orber Vazquez, SCO
RF Edgard Cairo, CHY
CF Luis Sojo, TRE
LF Tony Trevino, LA
DH Juan Nieves, SF
bench Felipe Santiago, FAR
bench Alex Navarre, LA
bench Benny Espinosa, TAC
bench Alex Samuel, CHR
bench Al Javier, SF
bench Ramiro Gabriel, ARI

Cuba:
Position Players
1B Diego Gabriel, SYR
2B Ruben Aramboles, CHY
SS Chico Valenzuela, TOR
3B Vic Lopez, SCZ
C Angel Sanchez, SF
RF Sammy Lugo, MN
CF Jumbo Tabaka, ARI
LF Jorge Prieto, CIN
DH Juan Gonzales, SYR
bench Victor Molina, SEA
bench Vic Ramirez, TOL

Life in Arizona

2008-12-10T10:37:00.000-08:00

This team is riding high and hopes to not be on fumes. They lead the WC race but have stiff competition for the spots. The dreams of putting REAL pressure on Cheyenne have never really materialized. They are jsut too good.

Season 6 - 1/4 Pole Review

2008-11-09T07:49:00.000-08:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

These races are all going pretty well as expected.

NORTH
Chicago is in a new park, and they currently have the top "ranked" team based upon overall OVR. It's not a fluke. They haqve won this division for 3 straight seasons. This team is poised to make a real run at the league title this season. Their pitching is good (currently #1 in AL) and they have a dangerous line-up. After 44 games, they are actually performing a bit off the pace their run differential would indicate. So watch out for this team to keep rolling.

Cleveland is performing about as expected given run differential, and they are on a 2-season run as an AL WC entry. This is a solid team, and it looks like they will be in the hunt for a 3rd straight playoff appearance, but most likely as a WC.

EAST
Charlotte is the defending division title holder, and it looks like they are poised to repeat. But - Watch out for both Buffalo and Boston. Buffalo might be the most improved team in the AL so far, and it will interesting to see if they can hang around all season. Boston might be down a bit. This franshice won the title 4 straight times in seasons 1-4 and feel to 2nd last season. Are they in a prolonged downward turn, or can they rebound?

SOUTH
Charleston has made three straight WC appearances, and I'd bet they'll be in the playoffs again. Their OVR says they are the 3rd best team in the AL. We'll see, but this is a solid team, and it looks like their best seasons are coming. However, they are over-performing abit based upon run differential. So - which is it? Is the record a better indicator of quality or the runs/runs allowed ratio? We'll see, but I'd bet the runs/runs allowed will more likely move closer to the record. Florida won 100+ games in seasons 1-4. This franchise won the division in seasons 2-5. This is still a good team, but they might be really pushed to catch Charleston this season.

WEST
Cheyenne is the two-time defending WS Champ. Until some team takes this crown away, they are the best team in Mattingly, and I don't see anything to indicate their run of success will end this season. This team won 338 regular season games the past two seasons. They are on a run of 3 straight 105+ win seasons, they have made 5 straight playoff appearances. No team in the division will push them this season, either.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NORTH
Toronto - under new ownership - is the 2-time defending division champ. That's not likely to change this season. This is a team on the rise, and they are #3 in the NL in OVR at the ML level. They might be over performing a bit right now based upon run differential, but this is a good team that will probably be in the playoffs.

EAST
Witchita is another good team (3 straight division titles) that's good again. It's another team whose record might be a bit better than their actualy quality, but it's a team that will most likely make the playoffs again.

SOUTH
New Orleans is a terrific team - tied with SF with the top OVR in the NL. Expect this team to reach the playoffs with the #1 or #2 seed. There just aren't many holes here at all.

WEST
Okay - now the interesting NL division.
San Francisco has won 100+ games 4 straight seasons. About the only thing this team hasn't done is win a WS, but don't bet against this team this season. As good as it's been - this might be the best team SF has fielded yet. The pitching is absolutely dominant, and the line-up is very good. There are no holes at all here.

Los Angeles is likewise coming off of 4 straight 100+ win seasons, but they are currently in 3rd place. That won't last. This team has made 3 WS apps in the past 4 seasons, and it's won 2 WS titles. That's not a fluke. This is a loaded team with deep pitching and a terrific line-up. Like SF - there aren't many holes.

Scottsdale is coming off a WC appearance in season 5. This team sits in 2nd place in the best division in Mattingly. Is the team good enough to push SF and LA this season? Most likely - no. But it's a team that could win 97-98 games and will be a tough opponent all season. SCO lost it's young closer for the season, and unless something develops there, this team will remain a WC playoff contender and no more. But it's got a great line-up, so watch out.

5 Years to Competitive - Year 3 Review

2008-09-14T12:13:00.000-07:00

A few seasons back, I nearly left the world over my frustration with what I viewed as inequities in the way teams are put together when new worlds begin. It seemed to me, and by the way I continue to hold to this belief, that some teams start with major advantages that take many seasons for competition to overcome. I don't remember who, but someone here called me out a bit and more or less dared me to stay. I stayed. I also said at the time it would take me at least 5 seasons to get to a reasonably even competitive standing with two franchises in my division - LA and SF. This season we are wrapping up is the third season since I started trying to rebuild my franchise. Not sure if anyone cares, but here's a progress report.

Here's where the team has been:

Season 1 - 89-73 .548 2nd place - WC

Season 2 - 79-83 .488 4th place

Season 3 - 77-85 .475 4th place
Season 4 - 73-89 .451 4th place

Season 5 - 95-67 .586 3rd place WC

Entering season 1, this team had the 31st pick in the player draft, meaning it was a team "coming off" a loss in the WS. It was a veteran team with several very good players. But - it was also an older team with quite a few big contracts. In other words, I started with a solid team, but one in decline. I played season 1 to win, and the team did well. I was quite pleased with the season, and earned a WC playoff birth. Should have been smarter, though, and slashed the team to shreds to start rebulding.

Season 2 saw both LA and SF in the NL West emerge as dominat teams. LA got there after a horrid first season, but made several trades and used the older telant to wheel and deal its way to a high level. SF, on the other hand, was gifted 4 HUGE top notch ace pitchers that have anchored the team since season 1. My season two team (Helena Handbasket - a truer name there never was), kept on the dowward trajectory from a "WS" which I never saw. The team got older, and I didn't have much of a farm system, either. So - the rebuilding started in earnest. But - first a confession. I made a HUGE budgeting mistake to start season 2, and that forced my hand on some deals.

Seasons 3 & 4 were essentially "holding" seasons while I continued to make deals, scout heavily and work on building up the farm system. The payoff was a loaded farm system, a AAA WS win, and a core of youth ready to roll going into season 5 and beyond.

Trades

In season 2, I made three trades, only one of which yielded a true keeper - Edgar Saez (c) and a real stud. He's hit 43 and 38 HR with 102 and 107 RBI's the past two seasons. So - that's one piece in place.

I made 8 trades in season 3. Going - Bottenfield & Tracey, ML level, Torres (1st round pick - LF), Torrealbla, Ozuna, Fetters, Hermanson (stud catcher), Grace, Knotts (retired), Fullmer, Kaufman, Riley, Stark (retired), Cooper, Gandarillas (current FA), & Padilla (stud starter). Coming: Sabathia, Perry, Alicea - all part of my current ML bullpen, Mark Calderon - CL (#2 NL Fireman of the Year), Seth Moses - current 2B, Roy Hughes (Season 4 NL ROY), Jackson AAA P, Jacque Thorton AA P w/ML starter potential, Derond Peterson AAA SS.

Coming in, but now gone - Don Key (traded Season 4), Dustin Riley (traded Season 3), Chritopher Harding (traded Season 4), Vitas Clark (FA departure) Craig Charles (retired), Thomas Lee (retired).

So I dealt away 6 current ML players - two of whom are legitimate stars - Hermanson and Padilla. I got my current 2B, 1B, CL and three important left-handed relievers, a potential ML starter and ML utility player.

In seasons 4 & 5 I made 9 total trades.

Going - Hammonds, Harding, Douglas, Brandon Woods, Nunnari, Hansel, Watson, Balfour (all season 4), Flores, Key, Sadler, Robinson, Mercedes, Fryman (season 5). Sam Hammonds remains a quality ML SS (New Orleans), Harding (CIN) and Douglas (LV) are workhorse relievers. Sadler (CLE) is a young CF, but there wasn't a lot of quality dealt away otherwise.

Coming: Flores (traded), Mule Brantley (14-10 ML Starter - future #1), Ferrer (NL All-Star SS this season), Pasqual Trinidad (ML reliever - 35 games 2.15 ERA), Mike Benjamin (ML LF), Bobby Joe Matthews (9-7 172 Innings, ML SP). Riggs, Rosario, Colbrunn, Cedeno, Cortes, & Pena - all minor league pitchers with solid upside potential. Bieser is a minor league 3B - AAA tops.

So I dealt a lot of quality, and I got fair value in return. I have two staring pitchers, my left fielder, a terrific SS and a high end reliever in hand. I also have 6 minor league pitchers who could all be good. So if only 2-3 hit, I had a nice set of trades. (Ralph Riggs might be the best of the bunch in a season or two.)

FREE AGENTS

I am not big on free agents, BUT it can be a great way to get some immediate help. Brandon Woods was the most important FA signing this season. He won 16 games to anchor my rotation. I added a few role players here and there, but Woods was by far the most important signing.

DRAFT

I've drafted two players who are in the ML - Hermanson (CHI - traded) and my current ML back-up catcher - Walter Jordon.

INT FA's

There are two INT FA's on my ML team - Lonny Soto (SP) and Julio Hernandez. Soto had a fine season - 11-6, 184 innings, 3.95 ERA. He's improving, and should be a solid to good 3rd-4th starter. Hernandez, along with Saez, Hughes and Moses, will anchor this team for many season. As a rookie, 45 HR, 124 RBI'S, 24 SB, .296/.,372/.619. At $16 million, he looks like a steal.

SEASON 4 & 5 of Plan

The plan going forward is more of the same. I've got a nice system. Every team made the playoffs this season, AA in WS. There are lots of good pitchers coming, and I've got a couple more big bats coming to bolster an already good line-up. With some luck, the rotation will settle down. Brantley will get better, Woods is solid and so is Matthews. Soto, an INT FA

My starting position players acquired through trade - Saez, C, Hughes, 1B, Moses 2B, Ferrer SS, Benjamin (LF0, Delgado (CF). I added Hernandez as an INT FA. I have potential upgrades coming at LF and 3B. The rotation is solid, and I have several viable candidates to add. I don't have a monster stud, and that's what's missing to push me closer to LA and SF.

So - I'm on track, and as solid as it looks, I have a long way to go before I catch my division rivals.

Playoff Preview - Through 1st Round

2008-09-13T08:59:00.000-07:00

Playoff Preview -Through 1st Round

NL

Expected Seedings:
1 - New Orleans Voodoo
2 - Los Angeles Dodger of Sarasota
3 - Wichita Force (eliminated)
4 - Chicago (eliminated)
5 - San Francisco Seals
6 - Scottsdale Gunners

The National League has been dominated al season by a three powerhouse teams - New Orleans, LA and San Francisco. Only the NL North had a competitive division race, and the two tops teams Fargo and Chicago struggled to play .500 ball.

The playoffs look like they are going to hold to form. Chicago and Wichita are out. Chicago’s “reward” for winning the NL North was a first round match-up with San Francisco. Chicago won the first two games, by SF’s pitching took over in the final three games and they advance. Wichita, with the #3 seed, drew #6 seed Scottsdale in round one, and in another 5-game series Scottsdale moves to round 2. So of the 4 NL teams left, New Orleans is the only team NOT from the NL West.

Here’s how the teams ranked entering the playoffs:

New Orleans - #1 - runs scored, #1 avg., #1 opp. runs, #3 era, #1 fielding %
LA - #2 - runs scored, #6 avg., #2 opp. runs, #2 era, #3 fielding %
Wichita (eliminated) - #6 - runs scored, #5 avg., #4 opp. runs, #4 era, #2 fielding %
Chicago (eliminated) - #7 - runs scored, #4 avg., #9 opp. runs, #9 era, #4 fielding %
San Francisco - #5 - runs scored, #9 avg., #3 opp. runs, #1 era, #10 fielding %
Scottsdale - #3 - runs scored, #3 avg., #6 opp. runs, #8 era, #11 fielding %

New Orleans looks like the favorite and deserving of their #1 seed. New Orleans pitchers won league-wide pitcher of the week honors 4 times - Maeda (2), Jamison and Tavarez, and they had two players of the week - Gonzalez and Yoshii. They have 8 NL All-Stars - Maeda, Gonzaga, Cummings and Tavarez from the pitching staff, and Ramirez, Cambers, Gonzalez and Peters. This is a great team, and their season success 113 wins - is no fluke.

LA is the number 2 seed, and they are likewise, an excellent team. They are one season removed from back-to-back WS titles. They have deep and excellent pitching, put up excellent offensive numbers in a VERY tough home park for hitters. Watch out for their pitching staff, though. Cora and Brew lead a rotation and bullpen that can lock down opposing bats, and if their pitching gets on a roll, they could very well pose a real threat to New Orleans. Key players - Cora (SP), Brew (CL), Dixon (SS) and Gonzalez (RF), Ross (1B) and Franco (3B).
San Francisco has - I think - the best overall pitching in our league. There simply isn’t a better rotation than theirs: Jones 23-6, 1.97 ERA (the likely NL Cy Young winner), Tucker 15-8, 3.06 ERA, Matos 15-4, 3.65 ERA, Mattingly 12-9, 3.27 ERA and Leary 12-9, 3.59 ERA. Then Rogers closes things down, and he’s a stud - 40/51 SV/OPP. 2.55 ERA. If San Francisco’s pitching gets hot, I wold not be surprised to see them beat New Orleans and advance to the WS.

Scottsdale is the #6 seed and the third team from the NL West remaining in teh NL playoffs. They edged Wichita in a 5-game series, but they will have their hands full with LA in the division series. That said, Scottsdale is a dangerous team. They played in a hitter friendly park, so their hitter’s numbers might be easy to dismiss. But - this is a terrific hitting team with power from the top through the bottom of the order - six hiiters with 23+ HR and 80+ RBI’s. Hughes 48 HR, 124 RBI’s, Saez 38 HR, 102 RBI’s and Hernandez 45 HR, 124 RBI’s (a leading NL ROY candidate) form a tremendous 3-4-5 in that order, and they can beat anybody on the strength of these bats. The pitching is not bad, either. Woods is a 16-game winner, and Calderon finished 2nd in the NL Fireman of the Year standings. A series win against LA would be a big upset, but it’s not impossible.

AL

Cheyenne Beagles
Florida Flounders
Chicago Style Pizza (eliminated)
Charlotte Knights (eliminated)
Cleveland Curse
Charleston Hurricanes

Cheyenne is the defending WS Champion, and they won 120 games to dominate the AL. Charlotte won a tight division battle with 87 wins (advanced on tie-breaker), but every other AL team had at least 97 wins.

As expected, the two play-in series went 5 games each. Cleveland knocked Charlotte out of the playoffs and Charleston beat Chicago in a mild upset.

Here’s how the teams ranked entering the playoffs:

Cheyenne - #2 - runs scored, #2 avg., #1 opp. runs, #1 era, #6 fielding %
Florida - #4 - runs scored, #5 avg., #2 opp. runs, #2 era, #5 fielding %
Chicago (eliminated) - #5 - runs scored, #6 avg., #3 opp. runs, #5 era, #3 fielding %
Charlotte (eliminated) - #10 - runs scored, #8 avg., #6 opp. runs, #7 era, #2 fielding %
Cleveland - #6 - runs scored, #3 avg., #4 opp. runs, #3 era, #7 fielding %
Charleston - #3 - runs scored, #4 avg., #5 opp. runs, #4 era, #12 fielding %

Cheyenne looks like the best team in the whole league, and I don’t see a serious challenger to them in the AL playoff field. Cheyenne has great pitching, with a rotation that nearly matches San Francisco’s: Williams 23-4, 2.46 ERA (Cy Young winner?), Frias 24-5, 3.47 ERA, Thomas 18-9, 4.38 ERA & Bruske 16-6, 3.73 ERA. McMasters is a dominant closer - 56/62 SV/OPP, 1.37 ERA. Leads don’t get away from this great team. The offense is just as good. Two players on this team I really like are JD Jackson (LF) (130 Runs, 224 Hits, 84 XBH, `23 RBI’s, .328/.385/.540) and Estrella (SS)(IMHO - he’s the best position player in the entire Mattingly World)(138 Runs, 23 HR, 87 RI’s, 43 SB, .287/.419/.454) Then there’s Torres - 38 HR and 129 RBI’s. Tis team should roll over the rest of the AL playoff field, and probably won’t get pushed until the WS. Of course, we’ll see about that!

Florida has another great individual player - Zhou (37 HR, 146 RBI’s) a player of the week winner. They won 101 games, so this is a solid team, and they earned their #2 seeding. The strength of the team is its pitching, and they have a very good top three to the rotation: Perry 22-5, 3.34 ERA, Meyer 19-5 3.53 ERA & Robbins 15-4, 2.74 ERA anchor a very good staff. McConnell closes, and he converted 89% of his chances - 34/38, 3.02 ERA. This team - if the top three pitchers - can hold Cheyenne down, might be a challenger to Cheyenne.

Cleveland is an interesting team. They are a wild card team with 99 wins, so they can’t be taken lightly. But there really isn’t a major standout on the team. They have a solid, well-balanced rotation: Davis 16-6, 2.81 ERA, Terraro 13-6, 3.09 ERA, Hayes 12-9, 3.13 ERA, Michaels 14-4, 3.87 ERA and McGee 11-5, 3.74 ERA. This rotation won’t scare anyone, but they have been really good over the 162-game season. The issue I see, is that in the playoffs, you rally need an “ace” or two, especially given the match-ups tey will face. The offense is very similar. There isn’t a big stud you have to shut down, nor are there lots of great bats. But there are several good hitters lead by Mathews, 31 HR, 116 RBI’s, .306/..409/.526. Beyond him, there aren’t any stars, but they do feature 5 hitters with 20+ HR’s. That said, this could be a tough team in a long series.

Charleston is the 4th wild card team still standing - in fact - all 4 WC teams are still alive! This is a team I see as a real dangerous AL team, and maybe the one with the best shot at beating Cheyenne. They have a good pair of starting pitchers: Delgado 22-5, 2.12 ERA (AL Cy Young winner?) & Peters 18-9, 3.74 ERA. If Delgado can win his games, they only need to take two more to advance. That’s possible. Charles also has an offense built around three big-time sluggers: Hammond 51 HR, 126 RBI’s, Mota 41 HR, 97 RBI’s (low durability limited him to 134 games) and Webb 41 HR, 109 RBI’s. This is the sort of team - a couple of big pitchers and some hitters who can carry a team, that can be real trouble for a higher seeded club.

Rule 5 Review - Season 5

2008-09-02T21:33:00.001-07:00

I took a stab at the picks and graded each pick and also added notes that I found interesting. In addition to stats I considred age and upside. I hope you all enjoy it.

Quinn Turner in Toledo, Sam Wilson in Arizona, Magglio Franco in Chicago, Mac Stull in Cheyenne, and Larry Creek in Wisconsin get special mention.

1 – pick returned to owner

2 – Martin Garcia (C-) Has to be considered a disappointment. His .228 AVG and .279 OBP are poor, but he has performed better in the last week. The upside is he is 23 so he may be better yet if Toledo has patience.

3 – Little Rock – Rafael Gallaraga (C-) A really high ERA at around 7.87 so the number 3 pick has soaked up innings but has been bad overall.

4 – Mexico City – Damon Tallet (C ) Another pitcher and another high ERA, this time not as bad at 6.09! MC expected better than they got on this guy.

5 – Arizona – Marquis Pride – (B-)The best of the top three pitchers but still no star with a 5 plus era. At 22 he appears to be a pretty decent pickup. Is he a starter or a LR? That remains to be seen.

6 – San Diego – Alex Flores – (B) Injured but has a promising future with the Conquistidors. We expect SD is fairly pleased with this pick.

7 – New York – Patrick Morton – ( C)Another average pitcher with a 5 plus era. As we work through this list the question lingers, were there any stud Rule 5 pitchers in this draft? So far
the answer is no.

8 – Cincy – Oscar Chang – (D)Offered back and claimed off waivers. He now hurls for Fargo and he is not setting the world on fire.

9 – Fargo – Julio Flores – (B+)A decent Catcher with decent numbers both hitting and catching. Fargo got a cheap player to fill some gaps with Julio! At 22 he is young so Fargo may be onto something with him.

10 – Wisconsin – Larry Creek –(A) Drafted, offered back and claimed by Las Vegas. His 3.33 era as a setup man makes him the best pitcher of the first 6 taken this year.

11 – Cleveland - Dave Spencer – (B+)Drafted by Cleveland, cleans out his locker but just drives a few hours to Toledo where he is playing well. He is on pace for 65 RBI and 33 stolen bases. Toledo has a nice young player here.

12 – Charleston - Bennie Cooper –(C-) He tried to do the Charleston and the Toledo shuffle but neither team seems too excited by him. He is just 22 so he may be held onto for now.

13 – Chicago – Magglio Franco – (A) Mags has decent numbers. He is a good gap filler for the Pizza guys. That is what I wrote a week ago, but that underestimates him. A good young player.

14 – Cheyenne – Mac Stull – (A)Nothing short of fantastic work by Stull. The best team in the AL West was shrewd to get this guy. A great pick at 14.

15 – SD – Paul Hall – (D)First pick of Round 2 ends up in Pawtucket and he is a nice inning eater but he does not have the numbers to show he will get much better!

16 – Toledo – Quinn Turner –(A) Just a super player for Toledo. He has been another nice find for the GM in Ohio, solid work!

17 – Arizona – Sam Wilson – (A)What’s not to like? He will easily get 100 RBI and hits .300. He is the best hitter of the group picked so far and will be hard to top!

18 – New York Bombers – (F)Lorenzo Cruz – An era approaching 10…..yikes!

19 – Fargo – Felipe Perez – He was offered back and accepted back. Playing AA ball

20 – Chicago – Gaylord Hudek – (inc)A part time player that at 23 may be kept by Chicago.

21 – Cheyenne – Stump Barkley – (inc) ERA of 8 plus, no great shakes……but he has only pitched 18 innings

22 – Toledo – Jerome Murphy – (inc) Part time 22 year old, upside is the reason for this rebuilding project

23 – Chicago – Arthur White – Not likely to be kept after this year. He is a part timer and 26.

24 – Toledo – Rob Price - He was offered back and accepted back. Playing AAA ball

25 – Chicago – Gus Harriger – (B) A surprisingly good pickup! He strikes out a lot but he is pushing toward 35 home runs.

26 – Toledo – Cody Heath – (C+) A nice young player for that may show some improvement next year more than this year.

27 – Chicago – Jamey Bennett – ( C ) A gamble pick that is average at best. Chicago took a flyer on him to see what would happen. The results are mixed.

28 – Toledo – Denny Park - He was offered back and accepted back. Playing AAA ball

29 – Chicago – Wilton Hollins – (B+) Plenty of upside for this young pitcher. Likely to stick with Chicago and stay in the pen.

30 – Toledo - John Thurman - He was offered back and accepted back. Playing AAA ball

31 – Chicago – Bucky York – He was offered back and accepted back. Playing AA ball

Draft Review - Continued

2008-08-25T17:23:00.000-07:00

Let's see...where was I...

30. San Francisco - John Penny - RP - $2330k bonus - RL
John looks to be a pretty good setup reliever or left specialist. If my scouts are off and he's better vsR than his 61 my scouts show, he could be a closer because he has very good control (88), vsL (80), velocity (92) and a 95 rated fastball to go along with a 65 slider. He has tremendous durability at 93 so he'll be out there almost everyday getting lefties out, but his health (47-53) is a risk. Solid end of the first round pick, but not great.

31. Los Angeles - Herm Jarvis - SS/3B/2B - unsigned
Either Herm didn't want to play in LA/Sarasota or trev decided not to pay him a relatively paltry $1.81M because he should be signed by now. He has very good power (81) and can hit lefties well (72) but righties not as well (57). His contact (41) and eye (46) leave much to be desired, and he's not really a good enough fielder to play SS at the ML level since range, glove and arm strength are all rated to mid-70's at best. Solid ML infielder here.

32. Cheyenne - Emmett Walsh - C/DH - $1000K - LowA
Emmett is a decent catching/DH prospect with all hitting ratings in the 60's except batting eye which I see as topping out at 74. He's extremely durable, but not really good enough to justify getting all that time at the ML level. A pitch calling rating of 61 is decent but combined with only 70/68 for arm strength and accuracy, he's not really the guy you'd love to have behind the plate defensively everyday.

The best of the supplemental round picks:

33. Little Rock - Bennie Zambrano - 1B/DH - $1000k - RL
A power hitting 1B with very good contact (83) and splits (82/67) and good batting eye (73). His health is risky at 57, but hopefully he can avoid the nerve irritations and bulging discs and he'll be very productive come season 8 hitting right in the middle of the Nine's lineup for many years to come. A very nice pick here.

34. Charlotte Knights - Rudy Bennett - SS - $960k - RL
Rudy can field his position very well with good enough range and glove (82/85) to go along with a great arm (90/89). He can hit pretty well too with 71 contact, 57 power, 70/52 splits and 55 eye. He should stay healthy and is reasonably durable such that he should make an impact by year 7 if not the end of next season. A real nice pick up here at 34. Surprising that he was passed up by others.

38. Chicago Pizza - Tony Bennett - 1B/DH - $800k - RL
The Pizza have this crooner playing Catcher, but that won't last. He could play 1B or DH at the major league level because he sure will hit, especially left handers. With 72 contact, 99 power, 88/56 splits and 84 eye Tony will put fear into the best left hander out there, and he should make the Pizza owner very, very happy come year 8. A very good DH/1B prospect who could be a MVP candidate if he could hit righties better.

40. San Francisco - Jack Ashley - 2B - RL
Jack has very good range for 2B, but not a great glove. However, his impact will be in the field, possibly at leadoff due to very good contact (75), splits (75/74), speed (85) and eye (82). His power of 31 is good enough for the occasional extra base hit, so he should be a very productive and healthy 2B for years, impacting the Seals' order come the end of season 7.

54. Charleston - JR Sweeney - 3B - RL
JR looks like a very good fielding 3B with a very strong arm (84) who can hit well enough too. He has good hitting ratings accross the board (62 contact, 69 power, 68/83 splits and 54 eye) and should always be healthy (100). A pretty good selection at 54 if I don't say so myself...

61. Florida - William Cairncross - RP/spot starter - RL
One of the best pitchers taken after the first round William has the elements of what I like in pitchers, which is good control (83), very good vsR at 82 and good enough vsL at 62 to go along with decent pitches, including one at or above 85 (forkball is 85 with others at 67,63, 42, 39). He could be very productive as a long reliever in the ML and spot starting occasionally as needed. Very good pick here.

Notable Mentions:
39. Jin Che Woo of New Orleans (solid SS with a great glove and adequate bat to start for many years);
54. Rodney Walker of Charleston (end of the rotation SP with good splits (64/69), control (70) and three decent pitches combining to over 200)
55. Mendy Martin of Chicago (a solid 3B with decent fielding and good hitting ratings, especially splits and 77 power)
63. Raul Saez of San Diego (if he stays healthy, which is unlikely, this is a find at 63 - 86 control, very good splits and 4 pitches combining to about 290)
70. Dennis Martin of Scottsdale (a SP almost identical to Rodney Walker with a bit worse control and splits but with slightly better pitches)
75. Bruce Terrell of Austin (a very good fielding SS (85/83 range/glove and 100/92 arm) with 100 batting eye. So what if he can't hit himself out of a paper bag (0 pwr), he has 57/55 splits and 47 contact. He'll be very useful.
76. Felipe Rodriguez of New York (a RP/SP combo (65 stamina) with 79/58 splits and pitches of 82/84/63/31 to go along with 81 control)
78. Edge Simpson of Jacksonville (if he only had better control he'd be an excellent pickup here. But at 49, his mid/high 70's splits and very good pitches might not be enough.)
79. Elston Overbeck of New Orleans (Like Edge, his control will be his downfall, but if not, he's got great upside.)
82. John Rogers of Little Rock (RP/spot starter with 71 control, 62/68 splits and 3 pitches combining for 250 make him a great selection here)
87. Erik Leach of Chicago Pizza (not sure what he's doing in RF but at 1B/DH he'll hit for sure)
91. Fred Kane of San Francisco (control and very good splits make Fred an excellent RP selected at the end of round 2)
93. Pedro Jimenez of Cheyenne (a 3B that should be a pretty good hitter at the ML level)

Power Rankings (8/18)

2008-08-18T07:49:00.000-07:00

I have a week off and my vacation was cancelled due to a pending hurricane, so I thought I would contribute something to this league. These rankings are completely subjective, so feel free to criticize.

1. New Orleans - How can you not choose the hottest team in baseball? 19 in a row and counting is simply amazing. Maeda is 14-2 with an ERA under 2 this season.

2. San Francisco - Best expected winning percentage in the league. Stacked team that is performing once again. Jones (15-3, 2.06 ERA) will challenge Maeda for the NL Cy Young

3. Cheyenne - Defending World Series champs are primed for another run. 3.54 Team ERA is good enough for second in the league. Starters 1-3 are amazing with no slouch at number 4.

4. Florida - Second in runs scored and third in team ERA makes this team very balanced. Louie Zhou is absolutely pounding the ball this year (.323 AVG, .618 SLG, 30 HRs, 104 RBIs). Biggest threat to Cheyenne in the AL.

5. Los Angeles - The Dodgers of Sarasota in Gainesville, FL are having another solid year. Will be hard to top SF and NO in the stacked National League though. R.O.Y. candidate Tomas Tavarez is having a solid campaign (.960 OPS, 26 HRs).

6. Scottsdale - Third NL West team in top 6. Best offense in baseball. Hernandez, Saez, and Hughes are as good as any 3-4-5 in the league. Can this team find pitching before the playoffs? The Gunners are in the bottom half of the league in ERA.

7. Chicago - Forbes and Snyder are having solid years, but will it be enough to top Florida and Cheyenne in the AL? Tyler White going down for the season is a big loss, but we all know the talent is there to step up.

8. Cleveland - Good campaign. Sticky Ratliff is having a down year for his standards. He will need to pick it up for the Curse to have a chance at winning the AL.

9. Charleston - Geraldo Delgado is at it again. 16-4, 2.35 ERA, 149 Ks should be good enough to call him AL Cy Young front-runner.

10. Wichita - Julio Cedeno is having a solid but not spectacular year. Teams are finding it a lot easier to pitch around him without Zhou in the lineup.

11. Boston - Kevin Bravo is once again proving to be the best CF in the AL (34 HRs, 1.031 OPS, 3 plus fielding plays, 0 minus fielding plays).

12. Las Vegas - Best of the rest. Nothing spectacular about this team, but they seem to always be there. Pitching will need to improve for them to make the playoffs.

13-32 - Get your teams above .500 and we'll talk

Draft Review

2008-08-15T17:07:00.001-07:00

With most of the draft picks signed it's definitely time to give an overview and somewhat critical analysis of this season's draft class. I'll go over all those taken in the first round and then later some others drafted in later rounds which I feel are likely to have a significant impact at the ML level someday.

Round 1.

1. Iowa City - Walter Parnell - SS - $4M Bonus - RL
Very deserving of the top pick in the draft, this durable, potentially gold glove SS (projected 100 fielding rating) can really hit too with very good contact (88) and solid power (71), splits (71/65) and eye (72). Should be an All-Star for many years to come.

2. San Diego - Bobby Kennedy - SS - $3910K - RL
Very solid second pick, but not nearly the fielder of Parnell. Not great range at SS (78) and alraedy has 6 (-) plays and a .911 fielding % in rookie ball. However, Kennedy looks like he'll be a very good, productive hitter and regular at SS or any other position in the field for 150+ games per season.

3. Tacoma - J.T. Salazar - 2B - $3820K - RL
J.T. should hurt many pitchers with his bat (83 power, 95/80 splits and 67/73 contact/eye). He's not very durable (74) and is somewhat injury prone (66), but when he plays he will be effective defensively and an All-Star calibre hitter. He's tearing up rookie ball so far.

4. Toledo - Steven Sexton - SS - $3720K - RL
The potential is there for Steven to be a very productive SS at the ML level. He should hit for power (82), average (82/72 splits and 64 contact) and get on base frequently (80 eye). But, his health is poor (44 now and up to 53), so that he may never reach his potential. Right now, though, he's been healthy and ripping in rookie ball.

5. Little Rock - Santiago Seanez - SP - $3630K - High A
Santiago is the first pitcher taken in the draft and while he's going to be a productive SP in the Majors in just 2-3 seasons, he will not be a front of the rotation kind of guy that you would expect to get this high in the draft. His splits are ordinary for the ML level (74/61), but he has excellent control (95) and a great, hard sinker (90) along with decent fastball, changeup and curveball all rated in the 50's. A very solid future ML SP, but the best in the draft?

6. Trenton - Will Waters - RP - $3540K - RL
A somewhat surprising pick at #6 when you consider his likely effectiveness, Will should be a solid setup reliever at the ML level, but no star. His splits are ordinary (59/69) with decent enough control (77) and two very good pitches in his fastball (81) and forkball (88). His overall rating is driven by incredible health (100) and durability (72) for a pitcher.

7. Mexico City - Dennis Martin - SP - $3440K - RL
Dennis projects to be an excellent left handed SP for Mexico City. He should eat up innings with his excellent stamina(95), control (90), and health (99) coupled with very good splits of 88/65 and a very good splitter (89), good cutter (73) and decent change (56) and a show-me curve (36). A very solid pick at #7, but at 2-4 in rookie ball, not yet proving it.

8. Pawtucket - Luis Estrada - 2B - unsigned - none
Pawtucket needs to sign this adequate fielding, tremendous hitting 2B. His 97/92 splits, 89 contact and 77 eye should make his decent power (69) even more productive. There's a huge upside, but also great downside with his 32 health. Give him what he wants and pray he stays healthy, because he could win an MVP.

9. Scottsdale - John Phillips - SP - $3250K - Low A
John should be very good in a few seasons primarily because of his control (88)and great fastball (94). He will pitch late into games with great stamina and has decent enough splits (53/71) and 4 complimentary pitches to be very effective. Another solid, workhorse SP.

10. Arizona - Frankie Christensen - Unsigned - none
I think Frankie either wants too much money or realizes he's just not going to be that good. A disappointing pick at #10 because of his inability to get righties out (25-39). He will be healthy (95), durable (29) and can pitch the whole game (88), but he has no great pitches (82/61/40/54) and control of 99 can only get you so far with poor splits.

11. Burlington - Randy Palmer - RP/Closer - $3070K - RL
This potential closer should be very effective (95 control and 88/91 splits) if he stays healthy (44-49). He's durable and can go 2-3 innings in relief, has decent pitches (79/67/39), but he's not likely to avoid the DL on a regular basis. A risky investment at #11.

12. Charlotte - Artie Webster - CF - $2970k - RL
A leadoff hitter (100 speed and 89 batting eye) in CF (85 range) with a good glove (83), he can really hit too (85/70 splits and 77/51 contact/power). Artie should be roaming CF for the Knights by season 7, and annoying pitchers with his speed and bat on a regular basis for years to come. Would be a tremendous prospect with better baserunning (only 62 projected), but nevertheless a very good selection here.

13. Sacramento - Deivi Castro - SP - $2925k - Low A
Deivi will likely have trouble at the ML level because of his splits (46/63) and pitches (69/68/46/32) being rather pedestrian. He's very health and durable though. Should eat many, many, many minor league innings for the next decade.

14. Austin - Aaron Post - RP/SP - $2790k - RL
If he stays health (62) he's likely to be one of the more effective pitchers in this draft class with 5 pitches to choose from including an excellent 4-seamer (92) and good sinker (75) and slider (67) to go along with solid control (78) and splits (82/72). A solid, albeit un-awe-inspiring pick here.

15. New York Bombers - Otto Henry - SP - $2690k - RL
Otto should be a very good pitcher for the Bombers as long as his catcher calls his curveball and cutter (90 and 86) instead of his change and slider (36 and 39). He has good enough splits and decent enough control to get ML hitters out. Another solid pick here.

16. Cincinnati - Dave Shunick - 2B - $2600k - Low A
A leadoff hitter for sure, Dave has splits, contact and eye all over 70 to go along with good speed (77) and baserunning (82). He'll be adequate in the field, but may see time in LF later on in his career.

17. Jacksonville - Wayne Prior - 2B/LF - $4,154k - RL
The Jellyfish GM Stepped up to the plate and showed Wayne the money, and now Wayne will begin a long career showing fish fans his 4 tools (he's only a decent fielder). He can hit for average and power (80), get on base (74 eye) and steal too (88 speed with 76 baserunning). A very nice pick at #17.

18. Charlotte - Doug Hayes - C - $2410k - RL
With the Knights second pick already they selected a decent catcher, but one that I don't believe was worthy of the 18th pick. His vsR is only projected to 51 and he is not a great pitch caller (56) so he's likely going to be best used as a DH, and for that position he's just not good enough.

19. Las Vegas - Nipsey Harris - LF/2B - $2320k - RL
Nipsey will be very good against lefties, with very good power and batting eye, and good enough against righties (58) to be an everyday, productive LF at the ML level. If his arm accuracy were to be undervalued by my scouts, he could also be used at 2B.

20. San Francisco - Scott Nielsen - CF - $2220k - RL
A very nice pick here for a very good hitting CF; a very tough position to find 88 range and 78/74 contact/power ratings. He will be heathy and hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup for the Seals by season 8.

21. Fargo - Anthony D'Amico - RP/spot SP - $2130k - High A
I really like this young pitcher. He has great splits (94/84), 5 solid pitches (86/66/73/59/57) and 86 control. Health is somewhat of a concern (67-78) but not all that much. I expect many 2 inning saves and over 100 very good ML IP in the future.

22. Chicago Chubs - Jose Moreno - SP - $2040k - Low A
A tough one to call here, but I'm going to say he's not going to be very effective at the ML level because of his splits of 48/62. He'll make it, and pitch at the back of the Chubs' rotation, but he'll not win many games. He has great control (89), stamina, durability and an excellent slow curve.

23. Tampa Bay - Tony Eusebio - SP - $1940k - Low A
A three pitch SP with poor splits (54/43) usually doesn't fare well at the ML level, and I don't expect Tony to be the exception.

24. Cleveland - James Baez - SP - $1850k - RL
James has can pitch forever (100 stamina), but not that often (19 durability), is somewhat a health risk (68-77) and doesn't have very good control (52). But, he has an excellent fasball (94) and very good slider and curveball (77/73) and good enough splits to make an impact at the ML level for the Curse.

25. Charleston - J.P. Velazquez - RF/3B - $1625k - RL
I sure wish he had better contact (46) and batting eye (53), but if he did, I'd not likely have been able to draft him because his other offensive ratings are very good (79 power and 85/81 splits). His health is risky too, but I project him to be in RF by season 8 and am reasonably satisfied with the selection.

26. Chicago Pizza - Ernest Ramirez - 2B - $1660k - RL
Ernie has great range at 2B and very good power (83). Like J.P. before him his contact and eye are not great. He has decent splits and should be very durable, so a very good pick at #26.

27. Sacramento - Alvin Simms - RP - unsigned
A rather poor choice here. Not really a ML talent.

28. New Orleans - Roger Cooper - CF - $1470k - RL
Hit it anywhere, I dare you, and he'll flag it down. A tremendous fielding CF'er, Roger will steal many bases and will hopefully bunt for many singles because he's not going to hit for power (17). A great pick at #28.

29. Chicago Pizza - Patsy Banks - DH - $1380k - RL
He's listed as a catcher, but there's no way he plays there in the Majors; and he will make the majors, of that there is little doubt. He can hit with vsR of 91, power/contact of 82/64 and eye of 74. He won't likely play more than 120 or so games, but he'll help out a great deal in those games.

30. To be continued

The fall of the NY2 Metropolitans

2008-07-31T22:35:00.000-07:00

I checked in on the old Mattingly World to see how the team was doing that I left vacant (NY2 last season, AUG this season), and was sad to see how poorly they were performing. I saw two players age 34 and older were signed for around $33m, and were signed to long-term deals. That looks to have set that franchise back a good bit, not only this season, but for future seasons as well if those players don't age well. Also, is it bad lineup, bad coaching, or just bad luck that has Hill, McNeil, and Warden batting anywhere from .040 to .060 points lower than last year? Looks like the minor leagues are doing so well either, with many of the winning %'s floating around .360. Any thoughts on what happened to the NY2 team that almost finished .500 last year and had tons of salary cap to use?

Injury ratings adjusted for Season 6? (a different league)

2008-07-29T01:54:00.000-07:00

Has WIS corrected the problem with injury ratings not meaning much? I've been looking over some numbers and here is what I've found:

As of right now there are 7 players on the 60 day DL in the ML. 6 of them have injury ratings around 50. Every single one of them had either no injuries before this season or just 15 day stints. Now all of a sudden in season 6 every one of them have gotten hit with a 60 day DL!

In AAA there are 17 players on 60 day DL. 12 of them are around 50 injury rating and 4 around 65. Barely any injuries in all previous seasons. Now in season 6 ALL 17 players got hit with a 60 day DL!

What do you all think?

Winter Meetings

2008-06-26T15:40:00.001-07:00

We caught up with commissioner Romano on the way to his bunker in Petaluma, California and he had the following to say about the upcoming Hard Ball Dynasty season, "Well, we're just about ready for the Winter Meetings, coach hiring, free agent signings and the rest of the off season, so I really don't have much time for you. But, I would like to personally thank the new owners for joining our World, and to wish them the best of success (except for Mike since he's in my division). Now go away because I've got free agents and prospective coaches to review!"

Impact International FA Signings This Season

2008-06-08T16:10:00.000-07:00

My scouts have gone through all of the International free agents signed during this season and have compiled a list of the best of them. I have listed only those with overall ratings over 70, although I know some below 70 will have an impact and some in this list will not. Here goes:

1. Ivan Blanco - Kansas City Force - $7.1M Bonus - RF
An excellent signing by the Force for this future major league Right Fielder. He can really hit with projections of 92 contact, 75 power, 74/68 for vsL/vsR and a 78 batting eye. This is evidenced by his having hit 390/466/727 in 77 AB's in the minors. With excellent health and durability, Ivan should be real "force" by season 6.

2. Felipe Torres - Iowa City Whitetails - $8.7M Bonus - SP
Also an excellent signing for the price, this sinker baller also has good secondary pitches as indicated by his plus slider, splitter and change up. His projected 93 stamina, 85 control and splits of 83/72 with a 92 rated sinker make him a potential top of the rotation SP.

3. Byung-Hyun Nakano - New York Bombers - $13M Bonus - RP
Nakano should be closing many games for the Bombers in the coming seasons with very good curveballs and tough sinkers. He has good stamina at 36, excellent control at 91 with tremendous splits at 93/96. Unfortunately, his owner jumped the gun and brought him straight to the majors where he's not surprisingly gotten shelled with a 6.23 ERA and 1.66 whip in 21.2 innings. He also gave up 7 HR's. Starting next season in AA or AAA would be a good idea.

4. Al Javier - San Francisco Seals - $10M Bonus - SS
Al has al the makings of a very good major leaguer, although I'm not convinced his future lies at SS since his range is projected to top out at 76; although his glove, arm strength and accuracy are more than good enough for the position. He can really hit too with 88 contact, 57 power, splits of 69/82 and a decent eye projected to 55. He hit very well in his 1st pro season with 359/434/629 and 11 HR's and 60 RBI's in 248 at bats in rookie league.

5. Kiki Tatis - Pawtucket Pawn Stars - $7.8M Bonus - SP
Kiki projects to be a middle of the rotation SP who can eat up a ton of innings, and stay healthy doing it with very good control at 83 and solid splits of 74/67. However, he has only one good pitch, and that's a sinker my scouts rate at 81. All other pitches are below 60. He also was brought straight to the majors, and definitely should be in the minors for a couple of seasons to reach his potential.

6. Tony Trevino - Los Angeles Dodgers - $10.5M Bonus - LF
This future HR champion can hit the long ball. This is clear from his 1st pro season where he hit 297/400/622 with 20 HR's in 246 LoA at bats and 373/465/880 with 11 HR's in only 83 HiA at bats. This smart baserunner should be a fixture in Los Angeles come midway through season 6, if not before then.

7. Pascual Crespo - San Diego Conquistadors - $12.3M Bonus - SP
San Diego's future Ace should be ready by the end of season 7. He has very good control at 87 with great splits at 72/96. Truly only a two pitch pitcher with a very good first pitch rated to 88 and a second at 74, his other show-me pitches should help him be a very solid ML starter and appear in a few all-star games. He was 5-2 with a 3.04 and 1.15 whip in rookie ball.

8. Mark Lui - Syracuse Stragglers - $3.9M Bonus - SP
The highest overall rated of Syracuse's many IFA pickups, Mark will have a difficult time succeeding at teh ML level with only 71 control and splits of 59/43. He does have two ML quality pitches in his fastball and slider. He had 2 mediocre starts in HiA and ended up with a 5.40 ERA and 1.63 whip.

9. Junior Batista - Scottsdale Gunners - $18M Bonus - SP
A very costly and risky investment by Scottsdale doesn't seem to have paid off already as Junior suffered a severe injury in his 1st pro season (torn labrum and still out for 179 more days). His poor health rating (47) will be a cause for more concerns. However, this talented fastball/change-up pitcher has a great deal of upside.

10. Benny Espinosa - Tacoma Winter Stix - $18.5M Bonus - 3B
The highest paid of all the international free agents, Benny would not appear to be worth the money. Sure, he can hit and definitely field his position with the best of them, and will undoubtedly contribute as an everyday 3B at the ML level, but it sure was a lot to pay.

11. Diego Gabriel - Iowa City Whitetails - $8M Bonus - 1B
This hard hitting (91 power), high contact/low strikeout first baseman (99 contact and 80 batting eye) should hit lefties and righties equally well (splits of 77/76). His 71 health projection is of some concern, so hopefully there are no nerve irritations, bulging disks or other power sapping injuries in his future. He did not see any action this season.

12. Felipe Johnson - Charleston Hurricanes - $8M Bonus - SP
Felipe has stamina (68) and health concerns (70) for a ML SP, but his stuff is not questioned. He has solid control (81), good splits (60/78), great durability (35) for a starter and a blazing fastball rated to 94. He should be a good ML starter if no injuries hit him hard. He was 1-3 in 18 starts with a 4.07 ERA in High A ball.

13. Moises Belliard - Syracuse Stragglers - $4.9M Bonus - SS
This slick fielding SS will wow them with the glove and should be good enough offensively to have a long major league career. He has a very good batting eye (81) and good enough speed (86) where he might see some time at the top of the Stragglers' lineup someday. A very good pickup for the price.

14. Damaso Alvarado - Jacksonville Jellyfish - $4.8M - SP
Damaso struggled in his first pro season going with a 36 ERA in AA and a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 whip in AAA. He could use some time in High A Ball next season to get back his confidence. There's reason to believe he will be a solid ML SP in the middle to the end of any rotation.

15. Benito Lopez - Scottsdale Gunners - $5.8M Bonus - SS
Benito has all the natural tools to be a ML shortstop, with good batting eye (75), splits (83/66) and contact (61). He has little power, but that's not his game. Unfortunately, he has mediocre speed as well. He hit 311/403/416 in loA ball this season and should move quickly through the Gunners farm system.

16. Felipe Sardinha - Cleveland Curse - $14.6M Bonus - 1B
That's a lot of money for a 1B, but he should be worth every penny. Felipe will undoubtely be seen in the HR Derby many times in the near future. His 88 contact, 100 power, splits (80/72) and batting eye of 75 have him projected as an MVP candidate. He did not disappoint in LoA with numbers like this: 350/442/617 with 14 HR's and 56 RBI in 240 at bats.

17. Wilfredo Seanez - Syracuse Stragglers - $6.1M - RP
Another of the Stragglers many IFA pick-ups, Wilfredo should be a fixture in their bullpen by season 6. He has very good control (89) and splits (61/68), a +++ fastball (95) and plus slider (76). He should avoid injuries and progress well, quickly.

18. Vladimir Seguignol - New York Metropolitans - $5.5M Bonus - RP
This son of former KGB spies stationed in the Dominican was lights out in his first pro season going 10-for-10 in saves with a 1.08 ERA and .90 whip in loA Ball. He has a good splitter (75) and very good sinker (85) with control (85) and splits (64/76) that should make him a welcome addition to the NY Bullpen by year 7.

19. Ivan Martinez - Iowa City Whitetails - $3.2M Bonus - SP
Ivan will eat as many innings as you can give him (100 stamina). Unfortunately, his lack of control (47) and only average splits (51/60) without more than 1 plus pitch (fastball at 89 - second pitch, slider at 67), will make him cannon fodder for ML hitters. This is evidenced by the absolute pounding he took at the LoA level - 7.90 ERA and 2.34 whip; albeit in only 3 starts.

20. Enrique Ortiz - Tampa Bay Rowdies - $8.3M Bonus - CF
Enrique has ML tools enough to be a solid CF or more likely 4th OF, but his health rating of 53 might get in the way. He has a very good batting eye (76) and good speed and baserunning (83/86). The Rowdies ownership hopes his success in his 1st pro season is a sign of things to come as he hit 375/452/583 with 17 HR's and 102 RBI in 451 AA at bats before tearing up AAA during his brief 28 at bat stint there.

21. Benito Mondesi - Trenton Generals - $2.9M - Catcher
Illegitimate great-grandson of the Generalissimo himself, Benito might not end up catching many games at the ML level, but he certainly will be hitting the pitchers. His great contact (91), splits (90/62), good power (71) and batting eye (75), combined with a 49 rating for pitch calling and only 64 arm accuracy are calling out for the DH/1B position at the ML level.

22. Felipe Moya - Trenton Generals - $5.0M Bonus - SP
Felipe will be a solid middle of the rotation SP for the Generals as he has very good splits (73/80) and two plus pitches in his fastball (83) and slider (80). His somewhat poor control (54) may not hurt him too much, but it certainly did in his 1st season as he walked 42 batters in only 83 IP resulting in a 6.07 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in Lo A Ball this year.

23. Alex Pena - Kansas City Force - $4.5M Bonus - RP
Alex will be helping out the Force's ML Bullpen someday. He has very good control (85), splits of 72/73 and an excellent forkball. He was 3 for 3 in save opportunities in his limited action this season.

24. Albert Cabrera - Charleston Hurricanes - $2.1M Bonus - SP
Albert will have a hard time succeeding at the ML level due to below average control (49) and only 1 plus pitch. He has very good stamina and good splits (68/66) so he could be a long A or B type reliever someday.

25. Domingo Canseco - Chicago Style Pizza - $5.7M Bonus - SS
A great glove (84), very strong and accurate arm (92/94) combined with good power (73) and splits (74/62) will make Domingo a major leaguer. The downside is poor batting eye (43), contact (46), baserunning/speed (45/41) and health concerns (62) may limit his success once there. He hit 370/388/642 in HiA this year.

26. Midre Cela - Boston Bean Pots - $7.6M Bonus - SS
Midre will be a very good hitter at the ML level, and should field well enough to play SS, but I see him as a utility guy who gets just about every at bat that all the regulars can't take. His 72 durability limits his playability.

27. Ramon Cho - Los Angeles Dodgers - $5.6M Bonus - 2B
Ramon's poor health (52) may impede his progression. If not, then it will be his splits (43/36) and lack of power (17). However, he will steal a ton of bases with baserunning and speed (projected to 97/100).

28. Oswaldo Gonzales - Austin Sixth Streets - $1.6M Bonus - 2B
Oswaldo has the distinction of being the lowest paid on this list. He is similar to Ramon Cho in that he has very good contact (82) and speed/baserunning (91/96) but poor splits and only a mediocre batting eye (53). He has great range and did prove himself in RL with 352/424/482 and 18 steals in 22 attempts.

29. Alex Samuel - Chicago Chubs - $7.1M Bonus - 2B
I can't see Samuel making the majors as a second baseman. I do see him in the Majors, but possibly in the outfield. He can hit with 86 power and splits of 60/86 and a good batting eye of 70. There's some durability concern here with only a 72 rating, but perhaps he's a utility guy? He hit well in HiA with 344/409/679 and 15 HR's in 209 AB's.

30. Orber Vazquez - Scottsdale Gunners - $4.2M Bonus - Catcher
Like most good hitting catchers (66/71/80/67/85) his pitch calling (55) leaves much to be desired. However, it's not so terrible that he wouldn't see some time in the field. He projects as a DH/1B type. He didn't fare so well in LoA with only a 254 average in 189 at bats.

31. Delino Castillo - Austin Sixth Streets - $10M Bonus - RP
Delino's only problem is he doesn't have great control (70). He does have 1 +++ pitch (95) and another very good one (89) and solid splits for an end of the game reliever (66/81). He fared will this year with a 2.51 ERA and 1.26 whip in High A Ball.

32. Ricardo Guerrero - Trenton Generals - $4.5M Bonus - SS
The Generals' scouts were busy and found this great fielding, little hitting SS. He has 90+ accross the board defensively, but a poor batting eye (39) and inability to hit lefties (30) will limit his usefullness.

33. Bernie Carrasquel - Austin Sixth Streets - $8.4M Bonus - LF
Bernie can hit, but as a left fielder probably not well enough to justify his signing bonus. He does nothing extremely well, but was very impressive in LoA with 315/401/587 and 24 Home Runs this season.

34. Ruben Aramboles - Cheyenne Beagles - $6.6M Bonus - 2B
Ruben is a solid fielding second baseman with no power (0). He projects as a backup IF/4th OF.

35. Tony Cruz - Syracuse Stragglers - $6.6M Bonus - Catcher
Yet another IFA signing by the Stragglers is another of the hitting catchers/DH type. He has great splits (85/91) a very good eye (78) and good contact/power ratings (55/71). His pitch calling (55) will not help much. He hit well in AA at 340/409/597 with 15 HR's in 288 at bats this year.

36. David Lopez - San Diego Conquistadors - $11.9M Bonus - SP/RP
San Diego paid quite a bit for this Anchorman. He should be using an effective sinker (87) to eat up innings as the long A/spot starter at the ML level in the near future. He has very good splits at 71/87 and good control at 77. He was used as a reliever in HiA this year to the tune of 1.76 ERA and 1.17 WHiP.

37. Vicente Mendez - Kansas City Force - $1.8M - RP
Vicente's 43 health rating will definitely hurt his otherwise bright future. He has great splits (78/84), control (93) and two plus pitches (both 86) which will make him enticing as trade bait. Nevertheless, he was a steal at the price.

Evaluating Pitchers - A Look at Ratings

2008-05-04T10:53:00.000-07:00

Pitching Study – Mattingly League
Based upon Seasons 1-3

One of the most puzzling parts of HBD, for veterans and rookies alike, is how to make sense of pitching ratings. The superstars with OVR of 90+, control of 90+, splits of 80+ and 3 80+ pitches are easy to understand. But there aren’t many of them in the league. In fact, there aren’t even all that many good pitchers with OVR’s above 80. So, we have to build staffs using flawed pitchers with some holes in their ratings. Some of these pitchers are better than others. But the question remains as to why some pitchers perform well and other do not.

Which ratings are the best drivers of pitching performance?

METHODOLOGY

I searched the league looking for the following pitcher profile: age – 28-32, OVR 70-79, and 50+ starts over seasons 1-3. The age selection is designed to capture three straight seasons of relatively stable ratings for the study. This selection allowed me to capture pitchers within a season or two of the in which their age was 27. Ratings seem to fluctuate a bit more on the younger side as pitchers develop, and they seem to plateau for two or three season from age 27 to age 29. I tried to look carefully at the 32-year old pitchers to ensure their ratings did not fall off so much that performance might be significantly impacted. I was pleasantly surprised to see how many pitchers held their “peak” ratings through age 31.

I selected OVR 70-79 for two reasons. First, the majority of starting pitchers in the league have OVR’s in this range. Second, I wanted to find a group of pitchers with strengths and weaknesses in their ratings. This allows us to compare relative strengths to see which ratings or combination of ratings seem to drive excellent performance. I want to see if I can illustrate whether and how a pitcher with average or poor splits might be successful, or what the threshold is for bare minimum control for success. This group of pitchers let us see that a bit more clearly.

I chose to focus on starting pitchers for two reasons. Their performances do not seem to vary as widely as relievers, and this would give me a significantly higher number of innings to examine.

THE PITCHERS & WHAT IS MISSING

There are 28 total pitchers that fit the profile I sought. What I am unable to do is normalize the performance of the pitchers to take into account ballpark effects. We simply do not have access to data that deep to make those calculations. So the best I can do is offer the raw numbers, identify the pitcher as AL or NL and whether the pitcher’s home park was hitter or pitcher friendly.

Two other gaps for MOST of the pitchers is an analysis of the impact of team defense and catcher’s pitch calling. Frankly, I think the pitch calling factor is all but negligible for 90% of the pitchers in the league. I simply cannot find a team in any league I’ve ever been in that had its pitching performance significantly impacted by pitch calling. Can it make some difference around the margins? It probably does, but I suspect it’s a minimal boost. Defense is a whole different story. HBD really ought to provide TEAM DER, but they don’t. I cannot go back and run those numbers (and I am certain – but can’t prove it) that team defense explains some of the results of pitchers in the study.

Here are the AVERAGE ratings and WHIP and ERA for the group.

OVR – 74, DUR – 27, HEALTH – 79, STAMINA – 79, CONTROL – 75, SPLITS 63/65, PITCHES – 82, 68, 57, 46

WHIP – 1.45, ERA 4.85, H/9 9.85, BB/9 3.23, K/9 – 6.53

SPLITS COMBINED – 129 (rounding affects number), PITCHES 1-3 – 207, PITCHES 1-4 – 253.

SUMMARY

So – what is it? Is it control that drives performance, or is it splits? What about pitch quality (movement)? And the answer is -- in varying combinations, all of the above.

1. Control – there are actually two thresholds for control. Pitchers with a control rating of 90+ can overcome, to quite a bit of success, average or even poor ratings in other areas. However, pitchers clearly MUST have control ratings of at least 50 to have a shot at being good.
2. Splits – if the pitcher has a combined set of splits of 150+, that pitcher has a very good chance of being successful, barring a disqualifying rating in control, or pitch quality.
3. Pitch quality (movement) – there are six pitchers in the study with combined pitch quality for pitches 1-3 of 220+ AND a sum of pitches 1-4 of 280+, and all six rank in the upper part of the sample. Two of the three “elite” performers have this characteristic. The 5th pitch was totally irrelevant. One of the top three has a “0” for a 5th pitch, and there is no correlation I can find between the 5th pitch and performance predictors.

EVALUATION THEORY

I believe the following “decision” tree or evaluation method will yield reasonable pitching performance predictability.

1. Control – 50> should NOT be considered viable as ML contributors, 90+ should be examined VERY closely, because they are likely to be at least decent – with SOME decent splits (100+) and average pitch quality.
2. Pitch Quality – Add the values for pitches 1-3 & 1-4. If you get sums of 210+ AND 250+, AND control is 50+, this pitcher is very likely to be a solid contributor.
3. Splits;
a. If the sum of the splits is 160+ AND control is 50+ AND pitches 1-3 OR 1-4 add up to at least 220 or 280 respectively, the pitcher will likely perform well.
b. With splits at 150 - 160, you MUST have one pitch quality rating of 220+ for pitches 1-3, OR 280+ for pitches 1-4.
c. If the splits are between 120 and 150, AND control is above 80, the pitcher can be effective IF one of the pitch quality sums is 220+ for 1-3 or 280+ for 1-4.

Splits are – by quite a bit – the least predictable rating standing alone. Good splits MUST be accompanied by other good to very good ratings. Poor to average splits CAN be overcome with excellent control (90+) or great pitch quality.

THE ANALYSIS – The Best

There are three really nice pitchers in the study. Russell Perry and Dion Roberts, both with ATL and Jay Meyers SAC all have put up very nice numbers in the first three seasons.

Perry – 42-26, 1.26 WHIP, 4.22 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 94 GS, 1 CG, 1 - 14 win season, and 1 – 20 win season.
Roberts – 36-16, 1.27 WHIP, 4.12 ERA, 7.29 k/9, 80 GS, 1 CG, 1 – 16 win season, with of ERA 3.25.
Meyers – 39-23, 1.38 WHIP, 3.74 ERA, 6.72 K/9, 94 GS, 2 CG, 3 straight 10+ win seasons, ERA 3.17 season 1.

Russell Perry, ATL, AL, 29, 76 OVR, 82 Control, 71/76 Splits, Pitches - 73, 78, 83, 63
Dion Roberts, ATL, AL, 31, 75 OVR, 84 Control, 83/83 Splits, Pitches - 89, 67, 59, 48 Jay Meyers, SAC, NL 30, 79 OVR, 69 Control, 85/72 Splits, Pitches - 95, 75, 66, 62

All three of these pitchers pitched for teams with pitcher friendly parks. Meyers (SAC) had the biggest advantage in that regard. ATL is an AL team, so Perry and Roberts’ performance MUST be viewed with the DH in mind. In RL, the ERA differential ranges from about .53 to .78 over the past twenty years. We lack historic data, but the AL league ERA is higher. So Perry’s 4.22 ERA and Roberts’ 4.12 ERA compare VERY favorably to Meyers 3.74 ERA.

These three pitchers were just terrific for their teams. So what – if anything – can we learn from their ratings? Quite a lot as it turns out. Perry, Roberts and Meyers each performed well with DIFFERENT combinations in areas of excellence.

Perry (76 OVR) has exceptional pitch quality, 73, 78, 83 and 63. (That 83 really stands out for a third pitch!) His 1-3 number is 234 and 1-4 comes in at 297 (the 2nd highest among the sample). Perry’s splits are very good – but not great at 147 (71/76), and control is a very solid 82. Perry’s formula for success, therefore, is good control + great pitch quality.

Roberts (75 OVR) has great splits at 166 (83/83 – the highest combined total among the sample). Roberts’ control is 84 which is solid, and his pitch quality, 89, 67, 58, 48, (1-3 = 214, 1-4 = 262) rank as good – but not great. Both are in the upper third of the group, but these ratings do not push the top rated pitchers in this regard. Roberts’ formula for success is good control + great splits.

Meyers (79 OVR) is the most interesting of the three. His control rating is a very pedestrian 69 which is 6 rating points below the group average of 75. It’s also 15 lower than Roberts and 13 lower than Perry. Not surprisingly, Meyers walks about .5 more batters per 9 innings than either Roberts or Perry. BUT – Meyers has been every bit as successful as the first two pitchers. He has outstanding splits – 159 (85/72) which is 2nd highest in the sample, and he combines these terrific splits with excellent pitch quality, 95, 75, 66, 62 (1-3 = 236 and 1-4 = 298). Meyers has the highest rated pitches in the entire sample. Meyers’ formula for success is great splits + great pitch quality overcoming modest control.

CONTROL – The Great and the Not So Great

Two pitchers in the study – Greg Decker (TRE) 18-27, 1.67 WHIP, 5.60 ERA in the NL, and Andres DeRojas (TB) 31-30, 1.72 WHIP, 5.45 ERA in the NL, really illustrate the issues poor control creates for pitchers.

These pitchers are both 29, the OVR – 71/72, control 37/30, splits 73/86 & 68/71 (both figures are in the upper tier of the sample), Decker’s pitch quality for pitches 1-3 is better than most of the sample, but his excellent 4th pitch (68) puts his 1-4 sum 3rd in the entire sample. DeRojas’ pitch quality is not as strong. His 1-3 pitches are in the “good” category, or upper half, but his 1-4 pitch ratings are average for the sample.

Greg Decker, TRE, NL, 29, 71 OVR, 37 Control, 73/86 Splits, Pitches – 76, 75, 67, 68
Andres DeRojas, TB, NL, 29, 72 OVR, 30 Control, 68/71 Splits, Pitches - 93, 67, 51, 41Andres

There are pitchers who performed better with comparable splits and pitch quality, but the low control numbers (Decker – 37 & DeRojas – 30) make these pitchers the weakest pair in the entire sample. DeRojas’ value IS improved a bit by eating up innings. He’s got 94 starts and averaged 5.51 Innings per start.

Edgar Flores (JAC) 31-29, 1.36 WHIP, 4.38 ERA in about 50/50 AL/NL, and Tori Lesher (JAC) 40-27, 1.29 WHIP, 4.26 ERA in the NL, are both successful pitchers. Both have pitched in fairly neutral parks. Here are their comparative ratings: OVR 74/74, control 97/93, splits 60/44 & 55/67. Flores’ pitch quality is quite a bit better, but neither are in the upper part of the sample on EITHER pitch quality or splits. Flores 44 rating against RH is the 2nd lowest in the whole sample.

Andres Cairo (SAC) 30-35, 1.32 WHIP, 4.03 ERA in the NL is another great control pitcher who’s been solid. His splits aren’t great, but his pitch quality is outstanding.

So how are these guys effective? It’s those terrific control numbers – 97, 93 and 97. These pitchers do very good jobs of reducing the number of base runners allowed by simply not walking many. Flores – 2.12 BB/9, Lesher 2.11 BB/9 and Cairo 2.27 BB/9. So these pitchers overcome average or poor splits two ways. Flores & Cairo – pitch quality, and for Lesher it’s his decent splits and very average pitch quality.

The Whole Sample

As I see it, Perry, Roberts and Meyers are the top three pitchers in the group. I’ve already discussed them.

Russell Perry ATL
Dion Roberts ATL
Cody Lewis AUS
David Torrealba AUS
Vasco Estrada BOS
Terrance Cook CHA
Matt Dawkins CHA
Ken Hayes CHY
Glenn Kieschnick CHI
Mariano Johnson IAC
Edgar Flores JAC
Tori Lesher JAC
Mel Curtis LV

Sam Kraemer LV 30
Raul Plata LR
Santiago Escobar LA
Jeff Byrnes MEX
Ted Hollins NYB
Quinn Lemke NYB
Larry Cirillo NYM
Dave Kirkland PAW
Dennis Lombard PAW
Jay Meyers SAC
Cleatus Lee SCR
Andres Cairo SYR
Andres DeRojas TB
Bill Kirkland TOL
Greg Decker TRE

Group Averages :
74 OVR
27 DUR
79 HEA
79 STAMINA
75 CONTROL
63 LEFT
65 RIGHT
82 PITCH 1
68 PITCH 2
57 PITCH 3
46 PITCH 4
129 SPLITS (SUM)
207 PITCHES 1-3 (SUM)
253 PITCHES 1-4 (SUM)

Conclusion

I believe we can conclude there is no single answer as to whether it’s control, splits or pitch quality that we should examine. Poor control CAN be overcome with excellent splits or pitch quality. Average splits CAN be overcome with solid control and excellent pitch quality. Average pitch quality CAN be overcome with great control and average splits.

Here are the key numbers:

CONTROL – 90+ (can overcome weak splits and average pitch quality)
SPLITS – 150+ can be solid IF control is 50+ and average pitch quality
PITCH QUALITY – 220+ (pitches 1-3) or 280+ (pitches 1-4) can be solid IF control is 50+ and average splits

Life as the Arizona GM

2008-04-23T10:12:00.000-07:00

Well this season has been a wild ride so far.

The ownership was pretty excited after least seasons wild card finish. The young pitching staff seemed to be maturing and the rookie LF and MVP candidate Dennis Magadan (49HR, 143 RBI, 15 stl, .267 avg) had the fans buzzing. The growth of Carlos Canseco the young SS also held great promise. FA acquisition Junior Tabaka was solid and the much sought after Ernest Hodges set the table at the top of the order.

But then Season 4 began and the bats were silent, and the pitching less than special. The season seemed to be slipping away. But suddenly things have corrected a bit and the team is playing much better. The question now is.......Is the early hole too deep or will they be ok?

The hitting has come around and so long as the pitching improves the Sun Spots hope to be in the thick of things. Julio Martinez continues to baffle. He is highly paid, highly rated, but yet seems to continue to be a pedestrian starter. He needs to perform like a #1 starter for this team to compete.

At 30-12 Cheyenne is once again running away with the division title. Currently at 19-23 the Sun Spots are looking up at the 24-18 Las Vegas squad as well. Internal emails show that the Spots hope to be 5-7 games over .500 by the break. That means they need to go about 24-15 over the next 39 games. That goal is attainable. Let's see if it happens.

BASEBALL HISTORY (Why 9 innings?)

2008-04-17T23:08:00.000-07:00

WHY IS A GAME 9 INNINGS LONG?

Under the earliest baseball rules laid out by the Knickerbocker club in 1842, there was no set number of innings. Rather, the first team to score 21 "aces"(or runs) was the game's winner. This lasted until 1857, when leading baseball figures held a convention in New York and revanped the rules of baseball, essentially making it the game it still is today. Instead of 21 aces, they decided that games shouuld last a set number of innings. An initial proposal called for seven inning games, but for reasons lost to history, they decided on nine instead - perhaps to match the number of players per team, whiich they also standardized at nine.

Imagine how baseball history might have unfolded if games were 7 innings. No-hitters might triple, four man pitching rotations might still be in vogue, The closer's role would have diminished in importance (top save seasons around 20?), Position players would get about 20% fewer at bats. How different would baseball history be had those 2 innings not been tacked on back in 1857?

Evaluating Hitters - What Ratings Matter

2008-03-26T15:55:00.000-07:00

What Ratings Drive Superb Performance?

Among the veterans of the game, conventional wisdom dictates that the OVR is not the best indicator of a player’s true value. I tend to agree. There are many components of the player’s overall rating (OVR) which do not seem to bear directly upon the player’s actual performance. SO from a pure hitting perspective, what ratings really matter? As it turns out, it’s exactly the ones we would most rationally expect – contact, power, splits and batting eye. NONE of the other ratings appears to have any true correlation to the quality of the hitter.

I looked over Mattingly’s three season history to see if there are some good predictors of a hitter’s performance as measured by the following five career hitting stats: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, slugging + on-base percentages, and RC27 (runs created per 27 outs). We can debate the relative merits of batting average to on-base percentage and whether the runs created formula is valid. I wasn’t too concerned with any of that for now. I just wanted to see whether the very best players in the league over the first three seasons in those categories shared some common characteristics, and if so, to see if I could identify them.

Batting Average

The two ratings which indicate the strongest correlation to excellence in batting average are contact and batting eye. This makes some sense IF we assume the game engine uses batting eye in two ways – strike zone recognition (more walks) and hitting zone recognition. In other words, when a player has an excellent batting eye, he is swinging at strikes that he can drive as opposed to swing at strikes that he cannot handle as well. In real life, this is EXACTLY what great hitters are able to do.
So – our top five career batting average leaders are:

Sticky Ratliff[1]
.359 Avg
74 Contact
90 Power
89 Left
75 Right
83 Eye
157 Eye+Contact

Cap Glass
.346 Avg.
88 C
78 P
55 L
90 R
72 E
160 E+C

Graeme Hernandez
.342 avg.
96 C
73 P
73 L
96 R
64 E
160 C+E

Cookie Gonzalez
.330
72 C
63 P
66 L
98 R
92 E
164 C+E

Benito Estrella
.329
92 C
64 P
84 L
76 R
69 E
161 C+E

A few things really jumped out at me when I broke these numbers down a bit. First, power hitters seem to do better than pure contact hitters, but high power ratings weren’t great predictors here. There is a 30% difference between the top power rating and the lowest among these hitters. Splits also didn’t seem critical – which frankly surprised me. Obviously, the combined splits run from a high of 169 to a low of 145. Four of the 5 hitters had splits totaling 160+. So they are important - but not as important as other ratings. The two lowest splits against lefties are carried by hitters with 90+ ratings against righties. But look at the last figure – contact plus eye ratings. It’s uncanny how tight these combined ratings are among these 5 terrific hitters (157, 160, 160, 164, 161). SO – we are probably looking for hitters with 80+ contact and batting eye ratings as real superstars in terms of batting average, and 70+ is likely to yeild a very, very good batting average.

On-Base Percentage

Okay – it’s batting eye. Of the five top career numbers, 4 have batting eye ratings of 90+ and the 5th (Ratliff) plays in a hitter’s park and has an excellent rating of 83. Unlike the batting average comparison, extremely high contact ratings don’t seem vital. Of the top 5 career hitters, only one had a contact rating above 80, with the remainder in the 70’s. These are excellent ratings, but not in the 90’s like hitters with the huge batting averages.

Chance Goldberg
.444
79 C
87 P
70 L
87 R
91 E
327 C+E+L+R

Angel Sanchez
.438
73 C
92 P
79 L
94 R
97 E
343 C+E+L+R

Cookie Gonzalez
.438
72 C
63 P
66 L
98 R
92 E
328 C+E+L+R

Sticky Ratliff
.436
74 C
90 P
89 L
75 R
83 E
321 C+E+L+R

Paul Cho
.426
86 C
81 P
67 L
77 R
99 E
329 C+E+L+R

The bottom figure for each player is the sum of the contact, batting eye and split ratings. The right handed splits tend to be consistently higher than the lefty ratings. Also, when these ratings are added together, you can see very small deviations between the players. So while splits in and of themselves aren’t necessarily indicators of success, the top hitters generally have higher ratings against right handed pitchers (there are many more righties – makes senses), and those splits need to be accompanied by good ratings in contact and batting eye. Id’ recommend looking for hitters with combined ratings in these areas of 280+ (70+ average) with 300+(75+ average) showing truly excellent potential for success.

Slugging Percentage

“It’s the power, stupid.” Okay – so this is a d’oh moment. But are there other ratings that need to be high to have a really great slugger? As it turns out, the answer is a little yes and a little no. Contact does not seem to be vital. Obviously, you’d rather not have a strikeout king, but a relatively low contact rating does not mean a player with a high power rating won’t hit for lots of power. He will. But it looks to me as though the sum of power and eye will be a pretty decent indicator of the sort of slugger you have.

Chance Goldberg
.673
79 C
87 P
70 L
87 R
91 E
178 P+E

Ricky Cormier
.634
68 C
87 P
55 L
78 R
87 E
174 P+E

Sticky Ratliff
.784
74 C
90 P
89 L
75 R
83 E
173 P+E

Bo Finley
.646
52 C
94 P
69 L
60 R
77 E
171 P+E

Sherman Darwin
.652
56 C
86 P
98 L
84 R
72 E
158 P+E

Darwin is a bit of an odd hitter among the group. The sum of his power and batting eye is 11% off the top figure, but his splits are the best among the group. He does really well when you add power, the splits and batting eye together, but that leaves a gap among the top three and bottom two. So – this is an area where it looks like you start with the power rating (the higher the better), look for a good batting eye, and look for nice splits. Don’t get too worried about contact.

Overall Quality

Angel Sanchez 435

Chance Goldberg 414

Sticky Ratliff 411

Kevin Bravo 411

Paul Cho 410

Graeme Hernandez 402

Sherman Darwin 396

Cookie Gonzalez 391

Benito Estrella 385

Cap Glass 383

Ricky Cormier 375

Bo Finley 352

These are the 12 hitters that ranked among the top 5 in career batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base+slugging and RC27 in Mattingly. The figure is the SUM of their respective contact, power, batting eye anad split ratings. Based upon this rather simplistic review, it looks to me like the two least critical ratings – in terms of predicting offensive success – are contact and the lefty split. Power looks to be the biggie with batting eye next and the righty split the third of these “more significant” ratings. Quite obviously there are more sophisticated ways to look at this. But this gives us a place to start.

400+ (average of 80+) across the board = a true superstar.
350+ (average of 70+) across the board = an excellent player, all-start caliber player.
300+ (average of 60+) across the board = everyday quality hitter
250+ (average of 50+) across the board = role player or with defensive excellence a SS/CF

[1] Sticky Ratliff shows up in every category. He is a terrific hitter, but he’s played all three seasons in a hitter friendly park.

Note From The Commish

2008-03-24T23:47:00.001-07:00

Spring is here in Season 4 of Mattingly World. We went upstairs for a little conversation with Mattingly's commissioner. When asked about this upcoming season, the commish responded, "I want to welcome back all returning owners and also to welcome aboard to our new members. I anticipate an excellent season from everyone."

When asked about his own team's chances, his reply was full of hedges, "Our team goes as does our Ace, Geraldo Delgado. I expect a better offense this season as my younger guys mature and perform up to expectations, particularly at second base where we've got two standouts in Andruw Hammond and that kid Alex Bryant. I also expect great things from CF Jesus Mota and #2 starter Emmanuel Guerrero." We also inquired about any free agent targets or looming trades, but Al was the typical GM in responding, "You never know!"

Tips for New Owners

2008-03-17T16:54:00.000-07:00

I think it might be helpful for new owners to get some tips from more seasoned players before they start making decisions on their ball clubs. I know it would have helped me in my first league, and it might prevent the new owners from getting their faced ripped off in trades (see any trade made by hartjh to sublimefargo in season 2). So, I am going to start adding tips on the blog, and if you feel like adding anything or correcting what I write, feel free.

Evaluating pitchers-
Do not overestimate the value of velocity. It does not seem to matter in a pitcher's performance. In fact, two of the best pitchers in the league (Carlos Maranon and Edwin Patterson) have velocity ratings lower than 43.

Do not pay attention to overall ratings too much. These ratings tend to be overinflated by stamina and durability ratings. I tend to look at a pitcher's splits rating(vsL and vsR), control rating, and pitch quality rating the most when evaluating pitchers.

A pitcher with stamina over 70 can be used as a starter (over 60 if he is really good)

Player Positions-
You can switch a player's position at anytime in the edit rosters page. I try to meet the minimums at every position, and especially up the middle of the field (ss, 2b, and cf).

Player Ratings-
A high overall rating does not necessarily make a player better than one with a lower rating. Example - A catcher with a 70 overall rating could be an exceptional hitter and very good behind the plate. But a pitcher with a 75 overall rating could have bad control, low splits, and make it up with high stamina and durability. The pitcher in this example would be useless at the major league level, but the catcher would be very valuable. Just keep this in mind.

This is a start for new owners. If anyone wants to add, please do so.

Welcome to your Mattingly World Blog

2008-03-15T06:33:00.000-07:00

Welcome to all fellow Mattingly owners to our electronic newspaper of all things Mattingly HBD. I am still twaeking it here and there, so any suggestions, please let me know. I will maintain our blog as long as there is an interest from the world. The blog is only as good as the content that is posted, so please feel free to post about anything related to our world. Game highlights, predictions, transactions, etc... be as simple or elaborate as you want. I'm looking forward to everyone's participation and the rollover thats coming up shortly.

Again Welcome Aboard!