Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Hartjh14's Season 10 team review

These are all just for fun. I did basic comments on each player and a slightly more detailed summary of the offenses and pitchers as a whole. No offense intended…this is all just my opinion and not scientific at all.


Seattle

C - Julio Flores Good all around C, should have a better year this season
1B - Geronimo Camacho Youngster being brought up, power low for 1B
2B - Quinton Murphy Poor range, decent glove, average bat
SS - Al Calles Young talented bat – not a defensive SS
3B - Brook Shelley Good all around player
LF - Eduardo Manuel Average bat, D should be fine in LF
CF - Pablo Sanchez Good bat that should never set foot in CF
RF - Sal Pritchett Good all around bat

Defense is going to hurt this team. This team should hit ok (though Seattle will keep the numbers down). I’m going to be interested to see how bad the defense hurts the team. If it isn’t bad, I may have to look at how much I value defense.

Anthony D'Amico Up and coming star…going to be good for a long time
Harvey Michaels vR is a little low, but Seattle helps him - decent pitcher
Ryan Beamon Career is winding down...should put up ok numbers in Seattle
Andrew Hale Good control, poor vL, ok vR…below average SP, ok numbers in Seattle
Thumper Spence Ratings look ok, but poor performance the last 2 years

Ralph Roosevelt Closer in decline, but should be ok for 1 more year

Pitching in Seattle helps a lot. The pitching is ok after D’Amico, but the numbers are better than they would appear from a ratings perspective. If the defense doesn’t hurt this staff, I can see this team competing for the division title again.

Prediction: This division looks like the race to .500 – whoever gets there wins the division. This team has a good chance.

Syracuse

Toronto

Eric Miller 3B Good power for a leadoff hitter, gold glove level 3B
Ivan Blanco LF Good all around hitter, good D for LF
Benito Chavez 2B Another very good all around bat – range is low for 2B, but solid
Doug Valdes C Good bat – probably should switch places with Miller in the lineup
Orlando Molina RF Up and coming hitter…won’t be a superstar, but looks good
Damaso Torres 1B Decent bat – power is a little low for 1B
Carlos Roque CF Blow average bat, but solid CFer
Aramis Maduro SS Decent defensive SS, bat is weak but ok

Offense is ok – would be better with Valdes and Miller switching spots in the order. Top of the order should score some runs, bottom of the order is okay and helps defensively.

SP Virgil Beltran Will eat innings, should be better than last year
SP Artie Silva Control and vR isn’t great, but has a great #1 pitch. Should be ok
SP Ernest Mercedes ratings look better than production…could see some improvement
SP John Tanaka Average SP – could do well, could blow up…hard to say
SP BC Cortes Control will keep him from ever being a quality SP

CL Sidney DeJean Ratings look good, production has been up and down

Pitching isn’t very strong, but isn’t horrible either. This team could compete for the division again or it could completely fall apart. If the guys with upside produce, this team could be tough to play on the days Cortes isn’t pitching.

Prediction: Could win the division if it gets to .500, could finish last. I’m rooting for the tits, so I’ll say it’s close to .500

Fargo

C - Carson Oliver Not very good defensively, okay offensively (especially vL)
1B - Wendall Giambi Looks like a promising young hitter – upside here
2B - Edgar Vega Horrible defensively, pretty good bat. Needs to play LF
3B - Chris Burks BE is low which hurts OBP, but solid slugging 3B
SS - Neal Cromer Really, really bad at SS. Bad D negates the little offensive value
LF - Stump Brooks Decent productive LFer. Could have upside if BA improves
CF - Nipsey Wengert Subpar defense, ok offense. Won’t hurt, won’t help
RF - Darrell Sweeney Monster hitter. One of the elite bats in the league

Sweeney makes the whole offense better. Some decent power throughout the lineup, but BA and OBP have been lower than I’d expect for the past couple years. Will they be better or will it be more of the same? The answer to that question will help determine the type of season this team will have. The defense is terrible.

SP1 - Rudy Glanville League average SP at best, splits are very low
SP2 - Kiki Tatis Has gotten worse each of the last 4 years. Upside here to bounce back
SP3 - Sherman McGuire Bad, and the weak defense is going to kill him
SP4 - Santiago Escobar Best SP when healthy. Quality SP here…could win 15 - 18
SP5 - Davey Montanaz League average SP.

CL - Carson Stull ERA is high, but has done a decent job closing in Fargo

Defense really hurts this pitching staff. There are a couple guys here that could win 15+ games with good defense and average run support. I think this group is going to struggle, but it won’t be completely their fault.

Prediction: A tough year in Fargo. 70 wins would be an accomplishment, but could happen with improved defense.

Cincinnati


Trenton

Eli Limon (RF) Good leadoff hitter vR – I assume he’s platooning
Wilfredo Sojo (2B) Looks like a decent hitter that’s struggled the past 2 seasons
Ichiro Zhang (CF) Very good bat…only an idiot would trade him
Nick Ludwick (1B) Good run producer…still has at least 1 very good year in him
Denny Park (C) Good platoon C – PC is low
Benji Bautista (LF) Good all around hitter on a slow decline
Carlos Rodriguez (3B) Could be good, could be a bust…on a short leash I imagine
Bey Black (SS) Defensive SS that won’t kill the team with the bat

Offense is pretty good. I think this team will score some runs. Defense is about average. The addition of Zhang takes this offense to a new level.

Joel Daniels (LHP) Consistent quality SP – not elite, but very good
Bucky Kaufman (RHP) Control is a little low, but he has produced at the ML level before
Felipe Moya (RHP) Another low control SP – will be up and down
Max Duncan (LHP) Decent SP coming off a rough season…expect more
Evan Paronto (LHP) Rookie is still developing, but looks solid – upside here

Pitching is a nice mixture of quality pitchers, a couple guys that will be up and down, and a rookie with some upside. If two of Duncan, Kaufman, Moya, and Paronto come through, this team will be in very good shape. If not, there could be a lot of slugfests.

Prediction: Competes for a playoff spot – either division or WC.

Augusta

1 LF Pete Benes Decent leadoff hitter…gets on base and has some upside
2 CF Kevin Aldred Had a rough year last season. Should be better this season
3 1B Cap Glass Power is starting to decline, but BA and OBP will keep him good
4 RF Lyle Lindsey Rough season in Augusta…better days ahead
5 3B Mark Baines 21 y.o. future impact bat…maybe not yet though
6 C Branden Hansell Solid all around catcher. Good player
7 SS Skeeter Wilkinson Horrible defensive SS. Bat isn’t good enough to justify playing
8 2B Midre Cela Should be playing SS (though he’s not good either).

Defense is brutal. Offense should score some runs and they are going to have to given the defensive weakness. Top of the order looks good and the rest looks decent. If Baines comes through, this will be a very good offense.

SP1 Billy Ray Sewell Starting to age, but still a #1 guy.
SP2 Richard Takada A quality #2 guy. Should be solid.
SP3 David Matos Another very good SP…could be #1 or 2 on a lot of teams.
SP4 Troy Stargell Average SP – lack of quality pitches hurts him
SP5 Angel Kelly Hasn’t done well in the upper minors…what will he do at the ML level?

CL D'Angelo Rivera Outperformed his ratings last year…can he repeat?

Pitching is very good. A couple key defensive upgrades could make this one of the best pitching staffs in the NL.

Predication: 3rd competitive team in the division. One of them (at least) is going to miss out on the playoffs. Wouldn’t want to face this pitching in the playoffs if they make it.

Kansas City

LF Scott Harding Outperformed his rating last season…can he repeat?
2b Joel Price Decent bat vR, but horrible 2B D.
RF Louie Guerrero Very good bat – could play for any team in the league
1B Ray Lee Curious to see how he’s effected by the new power limits – decent bat
3B Vin Slusarski Poor BE, but good splits play well in KC
CF Al Valdes Good for D, little else
C Quentin Grace Good for D, little else
SS Alberto Cordero Good for D, nothing else

Well, the defense should be good, but the hitting is going to be bad with 4 easy outs including the pitcher. This team will struggle to score runs.

Walter Dean Poor vL limits production, but he’s an average pitcher in production
Jim Burke Looks like a quality SP on paper…should be solid
Sammy Francona Poor splits, no great pitches…not good
Kurt Laxton Poor control, no great pitches…not good
Andre Brumfield ERA under 5 would be a great season

Pitching staff is bad. I’m as big of a believer in defense as there is, but I don’t think that good defense can overcome this staff’s weaknesses. It’s going to be a long year for this team. There’s no chance that this team wins 60.

Prediction: It better be the worst team in the league.

St Louis

EVAN YOUNG very good leadoff hitter – great OBP
ROBINSON PETERS Good eye, poor vR split – I wouldn’t bat him 2nd
KEVIN BRAVO Declining power, but still a solid #3 for a year or 2
RICHARD YOSHII A bit of an underachiever…solid hitter might have a great year left
LOUIE ZHOU Decent all around hitter – past his prime
JEROME MENECHINO Decent all around hitter
RAY RAMIREZ yet another decent all around guy
SOLLY INCAVIGLIA range is low, but good SS otherwise. Decent bat

Offense is good. No real weak spots, but not very many elite bats either. Should score enough runs to be a top 5 offense in the NL.

BRIAN MEDINA Still a top 5 SP – getting older, but still a stud
AL GONGORIA Good SP, not great. Will be solid.
BYRON BRANDT Great control, has consistently out performed his ratings. Great #3
MEL CURTIS Solid #4, nothing special, won’t hurt the team
BOBBY BECKWORTH Rookie may be a year away from being pretty good.

TODD CUMMINGS Consistently very good closer

Medina is great, 3 other SP are good. Beckworth is the wild card. Offense isn’t special, pitching is good to very good. Should be good enough to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Favorite to win the division and a playoff shoo-in barring injury. If another SP steps up, this team can compete for a spot in the WS.

Tampa Bay

C - Al Perez Very good all around C, low durability hurts
1B - Phil Webb Outstanding run producer for another year or 2
2B - Dion King Decent bat now…could probably use another season in the minors
3B - Bert Lary Decent bat, solid defense
SS - James Roth Good bat, not a defensive SS
LF - Woody Bailey Power bat at the peak of his career
CF - Victor Santana Ratings look good, but production has been spotty
RF - Bo Finley Veteran hitter clearly in decline…does he have one year left?

Don’t know the lineup order, but there are a few very productive bats here. Defense is going to be sub par, which will hurt the pitchers. Offense should put some runs on the board, and they’ll have to because of this:

Lyle Giles Bad control pretty much negates positive points
Pablo Ortega Splits indicate a pitcher not ready for the majors, but he’ll get his shot
Nick Tracy Bad vR = bad pitcher. Below average pitcher
Jobert Infante A quality ML pitcher! Should be #1 by a long shot.
Cam Dunston Weak splits…another bad pitcher.

Francis Kent Very good closer…did well in his first year in the role

Lets face it: the pitching is terrible on paper. If this team wins 70 games with this pitching, it will be quite the accomplishment – having said that, they won 79 last year. TB’s management must be doing something right!

Prediction:


Austin

Monterrey

Roger Cooper CF Quality defense, weaker bat
Felipe Morales RF good all around hitter
Elmer Maloney 1B Decent hitter, defense is weak for a 1B, but that’s ok
Wayne Prior LF Solid all around hitter
Doug Yeats 3B Weak BE tends to lead to inconsistency...will this be a good or bad year?
Scott Jones 2B No power, but should be ok vR
Bing Strickland C Very good defensive C…should help pitchers
Lew Petkovsek SS Very good defensive SS – bat is weak, but good enough given D

No studs, but several good all around hitters. Defense should be pretty good with quality defenders up the middle. This team won’t score a lot of runs, but the defense should help the pitchers produce better stats than they normally would.

Steve Worrell Decent pitcher that should benefit from the defense
Sean Hutch Another decent pitcher that will benefit from the defense.
Clay Weaver Has been very bad at the ML level…may be better, but not great
Leonardo Butler My pick to have a good year given the defense behind him…sleeper
Erik Acosta Did better last year than I’d expect…don’t think repeat

Closer
Antonio Lin Looks like a decent closer.

Bullpen looks like a real strength of the team. Rotation is a little shaky, but if Worrell and Hutch are solid and Butler steps up, this team could compete for a WC spot. I think .500 is a very realistic goal for this team with potential to exceed that.

Prediction: .500 record and a big improvement from last season.

Los Angeles Angels

Cookie Gonzalez (S) Great leadoff hitter
Darryl Dixon (S) Low OBP for #2 hitter, ok defense
Angel Sanchez (L) Rapidly declining power - maybe 1 more year as a #3 hitter.
Tomas Tavarez (R) Probably should be hitting #3, better vL, still impressive vR
Tony Trevino (S) Should be hitting clean-up – weak contact will make him inconsistent
Dan Davis (S) Type of hitter likely hurt by the new power capping – poor splits
Alex Samuel (S) Defensive player with average bat at best
Gus Borders (S) another weak spot in the lineup – poor splits + decent power = mediocre

Offense will rely heavily on the 1, 3, 4, and 5 hitters. Little production elsewhere. An injury to one of those guys will not keep the team from making the playoffs, but it will keep them from winning once there.

Raul Cedeno (L) Top 5 – top 10 pitcher in the league - will not go undefeated again
Blake Jones (R) Best pitcher in the league - enough said
Trenidad Santiago (L) Inning eater - will save bullpen with a lot of good innings.
Armando Torres (L) Won’t kill the team
Sammy Mercado (L) Rookie will likely be inconsistent

Nerio Brow (R) Weak spot is the bullpen – average closer at best

Hard to find a lot of major issues with the team. A lot of questions one you get past Jones and Cedeno I guess. Bullpen is below average. Ballpark will protect this team a little bit, but they will be very beatable in an offensive park where they won’t have the firepower to make up for their lack of offensive or pitching depth. Cedeno will not have as good of a season as he did last year.

Will win the division if: If the team stays healthy and Davis isn’t hurt by the new power adjustment.

Will miss the playoffs if: Jones or Cedeno goes down for a long time. The rest of the team could die and this team would still make the playoffs.

Prediction: First place with a similar win total to last season. Preseason favorite for a WS berth.

San Francisco

Al Javier Not a great SS, OBP is a little low for a leadoff hitter
Brandon Franco Top notch 3Bman both offensively and defensively
Julio Cedeno All-World offensive catcher. Stud #3 hitter
Allan Holden Good bat – very productive for SF
Roosevelt Henderson Another quality productive bat
Juan Nieves didn’t have a good season last year…some upside here
Cristian Kingsale Good bat, defense is suspect
Scott Nielsen Decent bat, defense is below average.

Offense looks very good – a lot of power and good all around hitters. This team should score some runs…even in San Francisco. Defense isn’t very good, but that may not be as big of an issue in San Fran as it might be in other parks.

Derek Mattingly Quality SP, not your typical #1 guy
Johnny Leary Another average SP…nothing great, certainly not bad
Al Tucker Once great SP clearly in decline. Still can hang with the big boys
Sean Gentry Promising young SP – could be #1 by the end of the year if not sooner
Keith Rose Good ratings coming off a rough season…should be better.

Keith Drew Good young closer should keep getting better

Some guys with upside here…if they develop the way it looks like they might, this team could give LAA a run for the division title. The rotation can be a top 3 staff, especially considering the home park.

Prediction: Anything less than a playoff berth would be a shock and a huge disappointment.


Salt Lake City

Salem

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Free Agent Signings, Season 10

Another big year for FA pickups, although probably not as big as last. It actually cost more to break into the top 10, but the contracts at the top were not as high (only one max contract this time around, compared to three last time). Enough of that - let's get to the list!

10. 3B Brandon Franco ($31.5M/3 years) - San Francisco Seals
Franco stays within the same division, but moves from hopeful World Champions to actual World Champions. The Seals will hope that his .530 slugging over the past two years will carry over, and help them to a repeat. The best part about this contract is that it's only for three years - he isn't likely to decline too much by the end of it.

9. RP Fausto James ($33.5M/5 years) - New York Metropolitans
James is another player leaving Anaheim. He should be an important piece of the bullpen, although the price may be a little steep. Looks like he'll be moving into the closer's role for New York, which will represent new territory for him. Biggest issue seems to be his stamina. Not a bad pickup at all, though.

8. SP Enrique Tavarez ($34.6M/5 years) - Charleston Hurricanes
Tavarez comes over from Buffalo, and he just looks like a solid pitcher all the way around. He's kept his ERA under 4.00 since Season 7, and if that can continue. Charleston will compete for a playoff spot once again.

7. C J.C. Matthews ($35.1M/4 years) - Cleveland Curse
The Curse needed to do something to stay afloat in the ultra-competitive AL North and for them it meant paying big bucks to bring back one of their own players. And he's a great one! With at least 30 home runs in each of the past four seasons, Matthews will do everything he can to get Cleveland back to the post-season.

6. SP Chad Peters ($36.5M/5 years) - Chicago White Sox
The already stacked White Sox add more pitching depth in Peters. He comes over from Charleston (and posting very solid numbers for them) and will look to push Chicago to a World Series win. They were the odds-on-favorite to win it last season before being dumped from their first post-season series by the Winter Stix. This could be the year, though. It happened for the Yankees - maybe these White Sox are next!

5. 1B Howie Ross ($44.6/5 years) - Pittsburgh Pirates
Ross comes over from the White Sox and is going to look to insert a ton of power into the middle of that lineup. He belted 66 home runs for the Sox last year... 66! Pittsburgh would love to see that kind of production, and it could push them from worst to first if they can get it.

4. RF Sammy Lugo ($50M/5 years) - Minnesota Minutemen
Like Cleveland, Minnesota had to pay to bring their own guy back. Unlike Matthews, however, Lugo is going to see a pretty nice raise (at least in Seasons 11-13). And why not? He's been over 50 home runs in each of the past three seasons. These are the kinds of moves that you need to make to stay competitive in that division.

3. SP William Schneider ($64M/5 years) - Syracuse Whitetails
Boy, are we glad to see this guy leave the NL East! He moves from Cincinnati to Syracuse, where the division is wide open (only took 78 wins to take it last season). Syracuse finished tied for that last season, maybe Schneider can help them get over the hump?

2. LF Louie Zhou ($65M/5 years) - St. Louis Gateway City Slickers
Zhou moves over from the World Champions to St. Louis. He carries with him an impressive bat and is going to join an already talented squad. Will he be enough to push St. Louis over the top and get them back to the World Series? St. Louis will hope his numbers resemble what he was putting up at Florida rather than San Francisco, though, where both his SLG and OBP dropped substantially.

1. SP Blake Jones ($110M/5 years) - Anaheim Dodgers
For all of the players that they lost, they sure did gain a great one. Jones comes over from Tacoma, where he lead the Winter Stix all the way to the World Series. The Dodgers will hope for more of the same. Even with Jones, can they overcome San Francisco and St. Louis?